Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc1f4454acb0ea3d8c6df00ef2a5dc4fd542fbb6131bd0db04015d29025a729c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d18…eae7backed Yes | 1c | 3,150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 56c | 2,485$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.91 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1415…9752backed No | 50c | 1,732$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 66c | 1,293$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.77 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,194$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.74 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 29c | 989.59$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 49c | 695.96$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.9 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 563$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 55c | 556.4$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 31c | 556.24$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 26c | 494.86$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.78 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 77c | 484.65$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 461.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 433.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.33 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed Yes | 28c | 399.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 51c | 364.58$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 15c | 257.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 78c | 192.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 11c | 186.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 8c | 134.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 131.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…de76backed No | 78c | 128.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0951…71cabacked No | 22c | 106.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 78c | 98.57$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…179abacked Yes | 21c | 97.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…4b3cbacked No | 76c | 93.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…4a9abacked No | 47c | 85.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 31c | 77.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…12f5backed Yes | 69c | 77.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed Yes | 35c | 76.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked No | 65c | 74.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 30c | 66.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed No | 25c | 63.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ab…5468backed No | 44c | 56.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 49c | 47.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…63b2backed No | 32c | 47.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…c403backed No | 72c | 40.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…0e9cbacked Yes | 77c | 38.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed Yes | 33c | 33.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 60c | 32.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 42c | 27.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…b686backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe169…5568backed Yes | 50c | 20.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd18f…a259backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…4e91backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…4742backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…9af4backed Yes | 61c | 19.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1435…f47dbacked No | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a3…b269backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?this page
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?No won
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.