Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff979f0527fc86e026d26c153d9ce9e5384e46fcba16917a735383193c7f133a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $314,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $297,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 349 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 10c | 11,972$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 37c | 8,144$3,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,003.63 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 5c | 8,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 35c | 6,351$2,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,123.53 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 40c | 5,671$2,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,394.61 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 44c | 5,520$2,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,092.01 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 15c | 4,830$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.77 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 21c | 4,534$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.16 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 17c | 4,307$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.35 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…cd9dbacked Yes | 77c | 4,160$3,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,184.65 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed No | 29c | 4,150$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,931.42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 59c | 3,916$2,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,294.4 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 3,815$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.44 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 34c | 3,595$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,387.1 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 11c | 3,431$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.98 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 35c | 3,143$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.65 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 15c | 3,028$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.12 | 197 | 31%61 W · 136 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 21c | 2,885$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.15 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 19c | 2,859$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,303.63 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 37c | 2,737$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,731.42 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 38c | 2,660$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.05 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff3…6f4fbacked Yes | 57c | 2,608$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f2…0822backed Yes | 53c | 2,573$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.58 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 46c | 2,479$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.84 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 2,278$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.54 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 136 | 16.2%22 W · 114 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 42c | 2,211$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.83 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3a…4580backed No | 48c | 2,173$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.67 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 29c | 2,109$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.25 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc3…6c57backed Yes | 78c | 2,100$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.81 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 2,074$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.72 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…2e44backed Yes | 49c | 2,046$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 25c | 1,916$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.37 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed Yes | 45c | 1,910$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.06 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 69c | 1,830$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.96 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 10c | 1,771$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.24 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb037…71f0backed No | 59c | 1,706$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9060…790bbacked Yes | 46c | 1,626$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 31c | 1,591$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.63 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fe…5c40backed Yes | 74c | 1,590$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 16c | 1,567$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.02 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Yes | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +124%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 56c | 1,498$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.11 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 51c | 1,497$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.06 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed No | 50c | 1,493$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.9 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 47c | 1,450$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.46 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…5c6cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,390$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.08 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fa…abcfbacked No | 72c | 1,316$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked No | 38c | 1,309$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.64 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 35c | 1,278$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.83 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 45c | 1,275$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.61 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes | 27c | 1,254$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.74 | 131 | 19.8%26 W · 105 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20d…d518backed No | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.66 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…eae5backed No | 53c | 1,123$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.48 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 27c | 1,104$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.29 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 49c | 1,100$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.59 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…c441backed No | 54c | 1,096$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.45 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Yes | 55c | 1,022$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5230…e0b6backed Yes | 15c | 1,016$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 16c | 1,012$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.85 | 211 | 22.3%47 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed Yes | 28c | 1,011$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.34 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…82b2backed Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 82 | 14.6%12 W · 70 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 8c | 999.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1740…d7c0backed No | 64c | 999.97$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.99 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 41c | 967.51$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.37 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 38c | 944.69$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.95 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd7…fa0cbacked Yes | 76c | 942.27$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…a4c2backed No | 56c | 939.99$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.1 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 50c | 936.54$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.81 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed No | 34c | 892.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.94 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 49c | 881.14$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 45c | 876.24$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.39 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 13c | 867.91$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…d319backed Yes | 62c | 851.61$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.32 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked No | 50c | 845.52$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.3 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed No | 13c | 763.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.42 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed No | 13c | 738$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked No | 28c | 705.42$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.53 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 35c | 699.91$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.84 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 694$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.61 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked No | 20c | 675.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.19 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 45c | 669.4$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.92 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed No | 20c | 656.2$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.96 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 47c | 649.46$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.7 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 18c | 645.26$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.26 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d2dcbacked Yes | 79c | 642.08$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed No | 27c | 639.58$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.84 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed No | 45c | 638.86$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.47 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 633.48$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.19 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes | 53c | 633.03$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.04 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 14c | 627.41$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 19c | 621.78$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 39c | 620.55$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.71 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes | 61c | 616.84$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.38 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 57c | 599.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…5051backed No | 22c | 599.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.99 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x271f…b8ebbacked Yes | 44c | 571.85$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.16 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.