TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$445,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$272,064

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $445,687 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes3c44,597$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.261,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes0c34,293$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4756817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes3c30,000$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.733134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes4c25,197$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.421,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes5c21,810$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.52259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes6c12,000$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68816427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes2c11,000$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18953817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes3c9,598$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.4521222.2%47 W · 165 L+0.5wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes5c6,313$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.4288018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes6c5,692$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.0963821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes3c5,251$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.274568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes5c5,210$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.1657222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes3c5,030$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.731827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick16cpaid-16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes5c4,795$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23488017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes2c4,722$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.931,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes5c4,613$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.0757621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes4c4,000$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15215136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes3c3,951$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5136411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes2c3,906$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1812421.8%27 W · 97 L+11.8wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+49.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,813$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.652,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes5c3,807$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.3422926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes2c3,525$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9362412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef3…c3c0backed Yes2c3,400$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes1c3,388$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.446097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes3c2,852$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2917917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be3…44a5backed Yes5c2,830$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.714233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes5c2,500$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8832613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb2…9aa8backed Yes1c2,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c2,328$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.41,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes3c2,134$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8211418.4%21 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea7b…2004backed Yes5c2,030$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.326322.2%14 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9060…790bbacked Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes5c1,960$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.219726.8%26 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes6c1,696$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.932,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes1c1,600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.443719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes5c1,548$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1825012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes3c1,469$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes6c1,402$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.912213.9%17 W · 105 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-63.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes2c1,398$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.634314%6 W · 37 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes4c1,329$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3728025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde72…b5b1backed Yes1c1,217$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.72532%8 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick20cpaid-3.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes7c1,211$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4154122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes4c1,167$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.991308.5%11 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes5c1,157$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9211729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes4c1,116$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.931822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes3c1,100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.325617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes5c1,065$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4462713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea85…efe5backed Yes6c1,037$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.496214.5%9 W · 53 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes6c1,011$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.781,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes2c1,010$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5279811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes5c1,000$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4714829.1%43 W · 105 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes4c1,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4423212.1%28 W · 204 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x470b…0d90backed Yes5c885$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.932835.7%10 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+80.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes2c853.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.592176%13 W · 204 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes5c831.19$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9910325.2%26 W · 77 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes5c779.25$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.678111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes2c765.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.451148.8%10 W · 104 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…77acbacked Yes7c760.67$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4115925.2%40 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c756.66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.416915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes6c749.63$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1319124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes7c731.78$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4334425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2749…06edbacked Yes4c719.58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.087432.4%24 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes9c692.3$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+76.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes6c645.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6832917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes5c638.93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3665311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7de…537abacked Yes7c633.14$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.154710.6%5 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+93.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes4c602.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242437%17 W · 226 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba75…adb4backed Yes2c545.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.69240%0 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes6c522.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2321827.1%59 W · 159 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes6c511.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.911,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c77…2eb1backed Yes3c500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.56334.9%22 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+68.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes7c499.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.523019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes3c499.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.539723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d74…a191backed Yes5c499.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.95038%19 W · 31 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+47.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x544a…dbe1backed Yes4c499.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0711831.4%37 W · 81 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c497.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45be…ab8abacked Yes6c485.26$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.819930.2%60 W · 139 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes5c469.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5527820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes6c460.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.993641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa340…f3d4backed Yes5c448.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.531625%4 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+358.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89e1…5323backed Yes8c417.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.854820.8%10 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes3c416$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7418218.7%34 W · 148 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes5c414.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4116741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes8c400.17$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3831621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes8c363.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed Yes6c363.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9819933.2%66 W · 133 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes5c352.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9222023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x692c…aadebacked Yes3c344.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick19cpaid+55.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes6c342.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8719118.8%36 W · 155 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes3c329.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8982714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed Yes7c322.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2123735.4%84 W · 153 L-0.7wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48c5…89f3backed Yes5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.24822.9%11 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes5c300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.95930.5%18 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36ec…5a0dbacked Yes6c291.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9614031.4%44 W · 96 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94f4…ea54backed Yes8c263.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7912828.1%36 W · 92 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc72…d412backed Yes5c258.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes6c251$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9659225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed Yes5c250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.256839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes5c248.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4113917.3%24 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4473…28adbacked Yes6c243.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518419%35 W · 149 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.