Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x777f197c2d3cd5d0a4bb5cb4d0ee11e7efbac3f4be601d7e9fc2f8ca7fc31597
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $445,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $272,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $445,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 44,597$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.26 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 0c | 34,293$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.47 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 3c | 30,000$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.73 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 4c | 25,197$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.42 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 5c | 21,810$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.5 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 6c | 12,000$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 2c | 11,000$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 3c | 9,598$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.45 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 5c | 6,313$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.42 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 6c | 5,692$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.09 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,251$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.27 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 5c | 5,210$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.16 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes | 3c | 5,030$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.73 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 5c | 4,795$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 4,722$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 4,613$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.07 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 3c | 3,951$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 2c | 3,906$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,813$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 3,807$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.34 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 3,525$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef3…c3c0backed Yes | 2c | 3,400$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,388$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,852$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…44a5backed Yes | 5c | 2,830$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.71 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,500$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb2…9aa8backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,328$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 3c | 2,134$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…2004backed Yes | 5c | 2,030$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9060…790bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 5c | 1,960$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 1,696$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.93 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,548$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.18 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 3c | 1,469$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,402$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 1,398$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,329$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,217$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 7c | 1,211$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 4c | 1,167$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 5c | 1,157$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 4c | 1,116$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,065$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea85…efe5backed Yes | 6c | 1,037$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 62 | 14.5%9 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 6c | 1,011$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 1,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…0d90backed Yes | 5c | 885$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 2c | 853.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 5c | 831.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 5c | 779.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x062d…500fbacked Yes | 2c | 765.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 114 | 8.8%10 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 7c | 760.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 756.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes | 6c | 749.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 7c | 731.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…06edbacked Yes | 4c | 719.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 9c | 692.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 6c | 645.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 5c | 638.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 7c | 633.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 4c | 602.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba75…adb4backed Yes | 2c | 545.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes | 6c | 522.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 218 | 27.1%59 W · 159 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 6c | 511.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…2eb1backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 3c | 499.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d74…a191backed Yes | 5c | 499.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed Yes | 4c | 499.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 497.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45be…ab8abacked Yes | 6c | 485.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 199 | 30.2%60 W · 139 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 5c | 469.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 6c | 460.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa340…f3d4backed Yes | 5c | 448.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +358.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…5323backed Yes | 8c | 417.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes | 3c | 416$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 182 | 18.7%34 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 5c | 414.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 8c | 400.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 8c | 363.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 6c | 363.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 199 | 33.2%66 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 5c | 352.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Yes | 3c | 344.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 19cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 6c | 342.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 3c | 329.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 7c | 322.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 237 | 35.4%84 W · 153 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c5…89f3backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ec…5a0dbacked Yes | 6c | 291.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 8c | 263.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…d412backed Yes | 5c | 258.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 6c | 251$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed Yes | 5c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 5c | 248.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…28adbacked Yes | 6c | 243.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 19%35 W · 149 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.