AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe414fc16d6bd36d1d8aed1437c7bd8cd374fba01c8a5c43bcd3898dc8aa6f177
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 32c | 3,960$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.3 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 19c | 1,920$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.22 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc30e…2548backed No | 56c | 1,043$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d8…639bbacked Yes | 1c | 814.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc9…57a9backed No | 76c | 763.48$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 23c | 698.46$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.85 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 16c | 660.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.46 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…30dabacked Yes | 77c | 640.16$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed Yes | 73c | 600$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes | 74c | 491.98$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 476.09$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 62c | 430.04$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.83 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…e1e2backed Yes | 58c | 399.87$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 22c | 397.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.72 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 21c | 365.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.35 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 19c | 357.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.53 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…a677backed No | 46c | 283.13$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…c443backed Yes | 72c | 282.5$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d98…676bbacked No | 18c | 273.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…1df2backed Yes | 79c | 254.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 247.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.58 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 6c | 217.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.87 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 8c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…6cb4backed Yes | 55c | 183.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…2b95backed No | 49c | 179.5$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 157.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.66 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 12c | 135.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 15c | 124.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed No | 20c | 118.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3682…c592backed No | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed No | 11c | 103.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…5ca7backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 97.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed No | 14c | 83.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb41…685ebacked Yes | 74c | 79.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes | 79c | 77.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9a…1565backed Yes | 71c | 70.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 78c | 64.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -8.3wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -67%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5299…f785backed No | 31c | 56.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105b…afa2backed Yes | 73c | 43.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…d102backed No | 40c | 37.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +147.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…d190backed Yes | 77c | 32.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ade…0c41backed Yes | 74c | 30.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed No | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5079…0aa4backed Yes | 80c | 29.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…f4f1backed Yes | 65c | 23.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42ae…ebcbbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6152…9c18backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3840…c118backed Yes | 80c | 16.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…f813backed Yes | 80c | 15.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1120…5efabacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…6c6cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.