Commodities · resolved market
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65c08331b9d3fe9c2142f15389960fff5f5e70f8230026170337ed257cbde9b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,501 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 13,002$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.19 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9913…21cfbacked Yes | 39c | 7,616$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…45d4backed No | 57c | 7,089$4,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,039.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,477$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 59c | 1,993$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.23 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6062…4084backed No | 77c | 1,870$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,794$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.99 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,701$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 26c | 1,663$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.24 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 52c | 1,514$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.07 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,461$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.57 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2521…eec7backed Yes | 46c | 1,277$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 9c | 1,122$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 34c | 1,097$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa02d…2935backed Yes | 44c | 1,080$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a0…c047backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e0…4466backed No | 59c | 978.56$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…7730backed Yes | 5c | 939.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 924$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 29c | 849.9$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.58 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…7193backed Yes | 16c | 817.53$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 7c | 800$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0451…b87abacked Yes | 13c | 787.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…8843backed Yes | 13c | 753.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 677.56$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 674.25$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.34 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 20c | 637.9$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.58 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 8c | 630.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2adb…a5b4backed Yes | 13c | 610.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 70c | 572.88$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.34 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 562.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594a…906ebacked Yes | 14c | 546.01$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e8…38b0backed Yes | 2c | 539.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 27c | 506.52$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 63c | 497$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +242.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a59…f2f0backed Yes | 41c | 485.27$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…032dbacked Yes | 12c | 402.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…76eabacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 13c | 386.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 12c | 366.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…0d48backed Yes | 30c | 335.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 3c | 325.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…9080backed Yes | 3c | 313.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e2…0a27backed Yes | 10c | 273.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…fb2ebacked Yes | 37c | 272.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 62c | 266.98$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb5…4ba6backed Yes | 57c | 263.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 37c | 252$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01d…a45cbacked Yes | 34c | 238.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes | 38c | 234.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed No | 78c | 220.66$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…f732backed Yes | 48c | 207.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 36c | 200$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.38per pick | 26cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b9…b138backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 71c | 196.9$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb372…2048backed Yes | 16c | 192.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc481…52eebacked Yes | 14c | 185$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7684…15c4backed Yes | 34c | 179.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 48c | 178.26$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.17 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 49c | 170.45$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7383…ced6backed Yes | 8c | 168.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 7c | 166.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa512…77ddbacked Yes | 24c | 166.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…f0c5backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…4cf0backed No | 61c | 163.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 17c | 162.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3e…403abacked Yes | 31c | 159.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…22c0backed No | 69c | 145.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 41c | 144$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 34c | 144$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06c…adf7backed Yes | 14c | 143.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…20d3backed Yes | 29c | 140.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…7861backed Yes | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc8…35e8backed Yes | 34c | 128.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…ab45backed No | 32c | 126.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 14c | 124$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…554cbacked Yes | 47c | 122.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31f7…1989backed Yes | 17c | 120.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…d18fbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 37c | 115$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +65%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 65c | 111.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…5e87backed Yes | 17c | 111.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…1b71backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…cd39backed Yes | 13c | 110.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 60c | 108.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…dba7backed Yes | 21c | 106$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 64c | 103.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…abd4backed Yes | 15c | 103.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…30f5backed Yes | 12c | 102.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…5280backed Yes | 17c | 101.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf223…f49cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5b…26fabacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +253.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c71…a36dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…bca7backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa182…03fabacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?this page
- US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.