Commodities · resolved market
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c77e467ed16ab6612f6f7724bff0f8bb97c3fff2d3643d1858a70bca5696b9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,762 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 12c | 8,490$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…463bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,520$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99aa…522abacked Yes | 5c | 900$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037c…3fa0backed Yes | 9c | 753.72$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…d422backed Yes | 7c | 611.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 13c | 600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 6c | 516.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…74fdbacked Yes | 4c | 477.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 6c | 466.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b33…535fbacked Yes | 5c | 304.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 6c | 276.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1c…c08ebacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…0fc4backed Yes | 4c | 233.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 7c | 200.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 6c | 192.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9f…eaa3backed Yes | 18c | 140.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92af…33a3backed Yes | 15c | 129.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +279.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60e…e488backed No | 73c | 121.61$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…b12dbacked No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 29c | 103.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4714…c177backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6140…08b0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada3…c449backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1338…322fbacked Yes | 16c | 74.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…5a2ebacked Yes | 15c | 66.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…c1dcbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f32…3e18backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 15?this page
- US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.