Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 25-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27380f929a037d42971335ade74a0971ed42d344a83915e8c1ce4d78af018cdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 65c | 3,158$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…f251backed Yes | 73c | 2,743$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebd…4671backed No | 14c | 2,499$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked No | 15c | 2,499$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.03 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 27c | 2,173$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.79 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa041…a24fbacked Yes | 76c | 1,293$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 12c | 1,200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 71 | 12.7%9 W · 62 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…d0fabacked No | 46c | 1,117$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.67 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 25c | 976.84$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.39 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 29c | 974.27$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.55 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed No | 30c | 780.78$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.92 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed No | 7c | 437.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…b8a0backed Yes | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…3f0ebacked No | 13c | 398.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…0622backed No | 33c | 366.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 64c | 312.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed No | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…1c17backed Yes | 67c | 243.55$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.31 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 60c | 243.52$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0374…10e8backed No | 28c | 219.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked No | 6c | 201.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…01a8backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66da…edd8backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…33f0backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 24c | 193.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc887…869bbacked No | 30c | 169.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf194…feaabacked No | 19c | 148.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 68c | 118$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa219…60e8backed Yes | 74c | 115.01$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes | 54c | 107.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 106$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…0d8bbacked Yes | 64c | 104.73$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2eb…3e5fbacked No | 40c | 99.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…423bbacked Yes | 70c | 89.42$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 25c | 80.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe87d…8cafbacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa324…c18abacked Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…bfb5backed Yes | 79c | 78.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 46c | 60.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…35dcbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…465dbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03cf…f27dbacked Yes | 64c | 36.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 38cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed Yes | 64c | 35.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 71c | 29.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…9ed0backed Yes | 73c | 26.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe65…cd92backed Yes | 76c | 26.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…cfa6backed Yes | 73c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac00…b58dbacked Yes | 78c | 19.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…aca1backed Yes | 72c | 17.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 25-31?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.