Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cd7f0df3eaf604d98a7b054caca1cbb5e49f3744c7f9ceef031fb52cf672237
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55e2…5fc9backed Yes | 7c | 10,407$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.85 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 5c | 9,955$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.22 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +144.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 6c | 5,999$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.94 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed Yes | 6c | 2,465$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5d…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 2,200$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 8c | 2,100$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.86 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…7d2abacked Yes | 26c | 1,936$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 50cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2246…fbdebacked Yes | 9c | 1,900$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 3c | 1,831$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…70dabacked Yes | 12c | 1,800$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 3c | 1,758$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,673$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 10c | 1,356$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.1 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.88 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,289$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 4c | 944.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 931.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 4c | 903.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…f218backed Yes | 6c | 872.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe886…e553backed Yes | 19c | 870.64$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.81 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…81eabacked Yes | 6c | 806.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 12c | 800.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 4c | 648.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 13c | 597.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…0d8bbacked Yes | 15c | 506.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 4c | 490$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc137…5eb0backed Yes | 4c | 480.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…cc11backed Yes | 6c | 479.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18e…7fe6backed Yes | 4c | 460.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4d…7f1dbacked Yes | 23c | 439.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc34…c663backed Yes | 5c | 359.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 5c | 353.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…d144backed Yes | 6c | 346.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…c05dbacked Yes | 22c | 345.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 6c | 282.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…aca1backed Yes | 5c | 282$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…5f77backed No | 77c | 249.31$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe995…06b7backed Yes | 8c | 235.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…bfb5backed Yes | 5c | 221.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…465dbacked Yes | 21c | 199.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…e698backed Yes | 6c | 173$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 12c | 158.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…b29bbacked Yes | 8c | 157.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde75…10d6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…b648backed Yes | 14c | 87.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked No | 77c | 73.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…7816backed No | 77c | 51.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4319…719abacked No | 78c | 25.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…e190backed No | 79c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 25-31?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 25-31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.