TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$278,606
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$246,805

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,606 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x25ea…fa5fbacked Yes5c54,992$2,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,615.1670%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e1d…d0fabacked No80c12,343$9,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,489.953946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85e0…3a93backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c8,610$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.952922.1%6 W · 286 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9859…1650backed Yes4c7,359$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.44240%0 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d17…9054backed Yes4c4,518$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.7190%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ed…8a18backed Yes42c4,300$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0c2…8915backed Yes12c3,400$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4101118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes23c3,172$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.086518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes8c3,000$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23714019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5182…0120backed No62c2,999$1,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.671573.3%11 W · 4 L+4.1wins+0.27per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes16c2,709$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.5687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054a…f218backed Yes1c2,407$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7496…3962backed Yes6c2,248$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.31811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-68.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes7c2,205$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.914533.3%15 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84a1…2842backed Yes2c2,096$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.051483.4%5 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c1,636$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.472126.6%14 W · 198 L+0.7wins0.00per pick6cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes11c1,515$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7228113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No60c1,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60013770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No73c1,318$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.1837745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,280$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.111,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes4c1,182$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.131043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33fb…897cbacked Yes4c1,069$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.35614.3%8 W · 48 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes3c1,041$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.24994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c5a…df23backed Yes41c1,036$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4202050%10 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc29…1c34backed Yes1c1,031$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.88454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccfe…1ed1backed Yes28c900$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a70…d019backed Yes4c884.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3780%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca9…439bbacked Yes12c829.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe616…a30abacked Yes3c820.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.37119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+127.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce1…f25fbacked Yes2c600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+39.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes6c592.89$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.098521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6294…33f3backed No73c583.95$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.466657.6%38 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes6c548.14$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4511328.3%32 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x815d…8648backed Yes35c500$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1731315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-68.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f6b…1ab6backed Yes3c499.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes4c456.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.813117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed36…e096backed Yes45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005226.9%14 W · 38 L-7.4wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc49e…0af7backed No69c408.77$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.19475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03cf…f27dbacked Yes16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642360.9%14 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.23per pick38cpaid+53.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9ef0…b8a0backed Yes41c390$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b4…b520backed No66c366.13$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.975100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fa9…5f77backed No61c360.66$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.665168.6%35 W · 16 L+7.2wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes27c311.54$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6211533%38 W · 77 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x547d…ea58backed Yes23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e0e…e6d1backed Yes5c262.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x628c…c651backed Yes41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004623.9%11 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0374…10e8backed Yes27c235.24$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f95…01a8backed Yes42c229.1$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.931643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2a8…8466backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+63%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3a6…33f0backed Yes41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8886…c7d0backed Yes17c192.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66da…edd8backed Yes41c190$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…7a84backed Yes10c189.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc7f…2f05backed Yes8c180$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.53514.3%5 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick8cpaid+112.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f45…97cebacked Yes36c171.09$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.31338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6685…0622backed No60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.673148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eae…ef73backed No57c148.32$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe87d…8cafbacked No69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.932759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes16c137.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.276446.9%30 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cb…daf3backed Yes11c135.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.941711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-69.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x726f…d8e7backed Yes25c134.17$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.111330.1%34 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd9f…c1a4backed Yes16c130.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.371127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-52.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7875…e0efbacked No76c113.18$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.953240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1944…c05dbacked Yes26c101.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.334969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.0wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+23.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No58c100.1$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1628021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xceb1…4249backed No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc18e…b090backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413871.1%27 W · 11 L+5.8wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6c7…ff77backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid+877.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b3…3ffebacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403938.5%15 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c3…d0efbacked No76c98.11$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.338467.9%57 W · 27 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No78c76.92$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9210067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2540643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2403…4a2ebacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc0…35dcbacked Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d2c…465dbacked Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e0d…bc8dbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+76%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d4…4128backed No63c40.87$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.98580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2474…ec29backed Yes40c38.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3807…3c74backed Yes40c35.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d8b…1751backed Yes41c35.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6950%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2391…fcbcbacked No60c34.37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe552…b192backed Yes39c25.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a43…a472backed Yes41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.25825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-52.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70c5…c8fcbacked No79c16.76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.