Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde59e2a805435d5987f08ecd58368a1af5aefa24266c72fd96e6ad4f4044c2f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $288,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $243,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 403 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2379…178ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 8c | 7,408$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.05 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 6,900$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 48c | 5,981$2,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,882.38 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 5,545$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.99 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 5c | 4,300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6c…1f86backed No | 49c | 3,990$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.8 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 16c | 3,895$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.2 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes | 2c | 3,465$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 22c | 3,342$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.69 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 31c | 2,977$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.29 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b1…10f8backed Yes | 23c | 2,908$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.64 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 68c | 2,647$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.98 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 29c | 2,376$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.98 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8e19backed Yes | 9c | 2,360$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 2,302$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.82 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 37c | 2,200$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.19 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 30c | 1,838$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.4 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…9f50backed Yes | 59c | 1,709$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 10c | 1,700$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 35c | 1,700$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.51 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 59c | 1,699$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.86 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,673$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 3c | 1,625$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 45c | 1,624$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.98 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 1,574$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.08 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 24c | 1,500$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 31c | 1,465$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.46 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 69c | 1,412$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.29 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 32c | 1,399$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.28 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 29c | 1,324$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.53 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,300$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.94 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 80c | 1,253$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…1b38backed Yes | 58c | 1,201$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.28 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x731a…9062backed Yes | 25c | 1,200$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa547…95ebbacked No | 64c | 1,199$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.37 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…b129backed No | 23c | 1,196$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.92 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,092$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 42c | 1,088$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.11 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d2dcbacked No | 33c | 1,076$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.57 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed Yes | 62c | 1,055$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.43 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1a…117abacked Yes | 64c | 1,038$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…924ebacked Yes | 56c | 1,020$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 73c | 1,016$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.76 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fa…1faebacked No | 45c | 1,014$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.97 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 56c | 1,014$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.98 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…2eb1backed No | 47c | 1,010$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.55 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes | 65c | 1,000$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…5051backed No | 31c | 999.42$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.42 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 70c | 990.01$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.42 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…d319backed Yes | 74c | 981.5$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 964.2$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.21 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20d…d518backed No | 27c | 960.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.57 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 48c | 956.43$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.32 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 15c | 942.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.71 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked No | 27c | 940.78$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.3 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed Yes | 54c | 930$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.2 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee72…5d8dbacked Yes | 64c | 909.99$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.89 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 40c | 899.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 58c | 887.85$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.25 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e8…c488backed Yes | 60c | 859.36$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.93 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 41c | 800$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 44c | 794.1$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.95 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…0d3dbacked Yes | 66c | 760.58$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…9917backed Yes | 19c | 755.5$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.65 | 79 | 20.3%16 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 67c | 750.51$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 27c | 750$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…cbd4backed Yes | 68c | 730.48$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.51 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 66c | 727.91$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.5 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…b83cbacked Yes | 4c | 700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…136dbacked No | 33c | 681.08$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.32 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…a2b2backed No | 32c | 679.97$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.87 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 34c | 615.43$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.92 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 610.44$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.27 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 40c | 599.55$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.71 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 15c | 599.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 43c | 572.05$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.82 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3f…4590backed Yes | 30c | 554.4$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 53c | 550.85$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.95 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 547.79$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.8 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 43c | 544.99$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.5 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…0b46backed Yes | 57c | 542.16$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.19 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes | 65c | 539.85$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.03 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f4…bf8dbacked Yes | 45c | 510$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…deabbacked Yes | 66c | 501.91$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.26 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…46cebacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 3c | 499.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 60c | 499.64$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 57c | 487.63$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.26 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 24c | 481.78$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.15 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 43c | 480$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.2 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 40c | 479.03$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.95 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 39c | 471.34$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.73 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 78c | 450$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea8…36efbacked No | 35c | 448.73$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.53 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.