Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44205227f17ab2364a4235e01c2226328bd74953de09cc8e05f9529830eaec13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 0c | 54,972$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.72 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 16,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,061$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.97 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 8,400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,933$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.66 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,325$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,393$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 3,080$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.86 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,654$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 1c | 1,574$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 3c | 1,564$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,450$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 5c | 953.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 5c | 951.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 7c | 808$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 2c | 780$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 777.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 4c | 544.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482f…53f7backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 254.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…c34dbacked Yes | 6c | 226.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 6c | 220.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…e02abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 6.5%7 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…aa91backed Yes | 6c | 192.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a4…8229backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.