Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x133031384e39838f3779ab472c088b4f51b8f97f14f6632ad77a325b84cd70ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $565,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $558,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $565,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 491 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c6c…1f86backed No | 36c | 37,348$13,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,480.5 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 79c | 13,915$10,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,954.47 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…c9d6backed No | 0c | 13,706$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 13c | 9,019$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,850.26 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 78c | 8,015$6,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,291.7 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 22c | 6,527$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,085.56 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 26c | 6,362$1,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700.62 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 26c | 5,287$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,927.13 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…ff9bbacked No | 0c | 5,200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked No | 0c | 5,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed No | 30c | 4,492$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.49 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cc…4b18backed No | 7c | 4,425$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 19c | 4,182$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,380.4 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 18c | 4,046$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,319.01 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe144…487fbacked Yes | 18c | 3,911$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,215.69 | 104 | 21.2%22 W · 82 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 80c | 3,898$3,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.48 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 23c | 3,847$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,965.67 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 56c | 3,842$2,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.43 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes | 18c | 3,751$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,072.18 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 1c | 3,621$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 78c | 3,589$2,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.18 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 28c | 3,328$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,409.04 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 31c | 3,302$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270.67 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 23c | 3,246$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,492.5 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 26c | 3,191$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,348.08 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…28adbacked Yes | 11c | 3,161$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,823.5 | 184 | 19%35 W · 149 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 14c | 3,000$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,595 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 17c | 2,919$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,427.77 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…1befbacked Yes | 15c | 2,872$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,441.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 23c | 2,734$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.16 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked No | 71c | 2,533$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.05 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3f…f75dbacked Yes | 32c | 2,529$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 12c | 2,329$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,047.48 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b1…10f8backed Yes | 26c | 2,294$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,696.72 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 2,246$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.44 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 27c | 2,204$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.73 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e5…a85bbacked Yes | 59c | 2,200$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.2 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7812…4bcdbacked No | 8c | 2,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.54 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,968$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,371.41 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe875…8492backed No | 1c | 1,920$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…9b48backed No | 50c | 1,914$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.47 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 75c | 1,875$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.57 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 24c | 1,869$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.3 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…c441backed No | 76c | 1,809$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.46 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 14c | 1,754$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.81 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…136dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,716$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.21 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 40c | 1,667$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.53 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 69c | 1,635$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.56 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 54c | 1,624$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.48 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 24c | 1,613$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.93 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 12c | 1,604$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.64 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 17c | 1,579$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.76 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f8…b229backed Yes | 17c | 1,574$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +524.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 1,574$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.8 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,554$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.57 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa340…f3d4backed Yes | 2c | 1,520$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +358.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 34c | 1,512$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.93 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…e8cebacked No | 48c | 1,500$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.49 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30d7…59c1backed Yes | 34c | 1,453$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 38c | 1,450$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.91 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked No | 10c | 1,413$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 36c | 1,400$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.33 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4e…128ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,399$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.74 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 77c | 1,350$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.99 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,347$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.81 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 35c | 1,306$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.94 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 23c | 1,304$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.42 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,302$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.8 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 15c | 1,300$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.97 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 72c | 1,210$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.28 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 3c | 1,205$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.86 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes | 24c | 1,200$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 30c | 1,164$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.77 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…765abacked Yes | 60c | 1,150$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.32 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 71cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 27c | 1,131$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.96 | 344 | 27%93 W · 251 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e8…c488backed Yes | 52c | 1,129$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.73 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 1,102$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.76 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…2eb1backed Yes | 17c | 1,097$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.58 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd4…0568backed Yes | 33c | 1,070$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,069$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.83 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…9b49backed No | 63c | 1,052$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.85 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 29c | 1,045$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.3 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…d319backed Yes | 55c | 1,012$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.73 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…cd90backed No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 19c | 999.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.49 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 17c | 998.45$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.8 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 55c | 957.98$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.44 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 7c | 953.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.91 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 940.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a4…6f4dbacked Yes | 33c | 936.73$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.31 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 39c | 883.96$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.81 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed No | 27c | 850$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.2 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5f…356abacked Yes | 24c | 844.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.05 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 35cpaid | +239.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x266e…17e5backed Yes | 52c | 825.04$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.24 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b19…ca35backed Yes | 70c | 815.11$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.26 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…30e5backed No | 51c | 803.72$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked No | 26c | 800$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 182 | 18.7%34 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…063ebacked No | 62c | 799.97$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 19c | 790.9$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.26 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb16…72bfbacked Yes | 77c | 781.13$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.22 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.