Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd243a3ab46d128c8c46ddfc413e5a37e5f238791a1ded56a19ec559614058873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $375,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $331,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $375,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2379…178ebacked Yes | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 2c | 28,921$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.78 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 11,379$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.17 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 4c | 10,513$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.9 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 10,050$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 1c | 9,500$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 4c | 6,937$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.44 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 3c | 6,807$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.06 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 6,400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 3c | 5,813$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.72 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 3c | 5,341$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.13 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 5,028$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…9eaabacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Yes | 3c | 3,150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,500$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.58 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 14c | 2,481$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.06 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 6c | 2,097$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.65 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…3e8ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 63 | 12.7%8 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…9ddabacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,776$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 13c | 1,740$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.29 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,675$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 1,574$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,540$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…9f50backed Yes | 24c | 1,536$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…28b8backed Yes | 13c | 1,502$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.21 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…7803backed Yes | 1c | 1,415$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 18c | 1,345$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.1 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 1,310$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 1,290$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 16c | 1,114$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.09 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 10c | 1,099$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.93 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 24c | 1,043$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.01 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 1,029$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 32c | 1,027$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 5c | 1,011$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 6c | 956.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 926$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 2c | 908.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…9dbdbacked Yes | 9c | 899.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 76c | 893.55$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 15c | 777.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 14c | 774.68$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.84 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…1f12backed Yes | 5c | 699.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes | 7c | 657.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…aa04backed Yes | 14c | 627.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 2c | 599.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 599.45$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes | 3c | 596.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 12c | 587.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes | 3c | 498.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 5c | 475$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 7c | 459.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 9c | 447.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 12c | 435.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 12c | 425.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 3c | 415$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes | 12c | 413.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes | 16c | 368.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…cc19backed Yes | 22c | 350$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 3c | 345.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 109 | 17.4%19 W · 90 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…1f93backed Yes | 22c | 316.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…b6c7backed Yes | 6c | 307.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 17c | 304.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 4c | 286.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…634bbacked Yes | 7c | 280.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a86…9679backed Yes | 26c | 266.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cc…b624backed Yes | 23c | 259.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 16c | 254.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…0d90backed Yes | 6c | 248.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 23c | 209.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 7c | 206.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5347…95f2backed Yes | 21c | 200.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb237…3816backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b1…10f8backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 10c | 197.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 27c | 188.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 15c | 184.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee72…5d8dbacked Yes | 24c | 180$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 29c | 172.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f50…1c1bbacked Yes | 9c | 164.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +211.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…055ebacked Yes | 16c | 157.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf079…ca73backed Yes | 24c | 155.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 12c | 152.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…9917backed Yes | 17c | 143.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 79 | 20.3%16 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…d9e5backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…94eabacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.