Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b913b32a4f1d6ffd66f0304f662ff3ec519409287abb0df10851d7ea4a229b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde2c…dc68backed Yes | 72c | 1,903$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed Yes | 23c | 1,694$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 69c | 1,321$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.37 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3caf…6d8abacked Yes | 77c | 1,262$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 23c | 1,055$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.91 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 27c | 963.63$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.38 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed No | 4c | 954.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 69c | 933.62$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.96 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 36c | 920.42$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked No | 77c | 886$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 20c | 876.29$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.58 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 14c | 857.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.15 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked No | 77c | 808$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 48c | 693.79$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.84 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 24c | 500.5$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.68 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked No | 52c | 499.96$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.98 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed Yes | 52c | 474.03$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.59 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed No | 22c | 454.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked No | 14c | 448.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…3f8dbacked No | 40c | 406.27$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…e122backed Yes | 48c | 376.68$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.87 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b04abacked Yes | 78c | 365.73$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 11c | 326.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 50c | 270.08$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.04 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed No | 43c | 233.16$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 14cpaid | +811.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked No | 16c | 229.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 50c | 224$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 59c | 210.75$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 54c | 206.15$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.62 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f2…bbebbacked Yes | 49c | 203.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.87 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…3090backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…1c69backed No | 27c | 197.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 41c | 191.34$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 44c | 187.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed Yes | 68c | 180.59$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c89…1c52backed Yes | 77c | 130.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 20c | 127.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 66c | 122$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213b…a52cbacked No | 12c | 109.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed No | 14c | 106.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 40c | 100.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 48c | 99.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 51c | 98.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf775…f817backed Yes | 74c | 92.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7154…6efcbacked No | 51c | 90.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2f…2dedbacked Yes | 45c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…9b13backed No | 48c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 25c | 84.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7f…4e57backed Yes | 60c | 83.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 42c | 80.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 79.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 15c | 77.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed Yes | 56c | 66.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae74backed No | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f8…7483backed No | 19c | 63.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +188.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 51c | 62.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 28c | 61.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…babfbacked Yes | 49c | 60.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -51%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…70d9backed Yes | 49c | 56.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…63b2backed Yes | 54c | 55.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed No | 51c | 52.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed No | 40c | 50.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…f1fbbacked Yes | 48c | 49.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 40c | 47.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…ad79backed Yes | 76c | 42.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 56c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed No | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…9506backed No | 54c | 40.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…35dcbacked Yes | 48c | 39.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf7…7b1ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75c8…af83backed Yes | 72c | 37.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 28c | 37.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed No | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e98…dadebacked No | 52c | 30.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…7f16backed No | 49c | 30.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…f49abacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…0734backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…d517backed Yes | 48c | 29.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a32…215cbacked Yes | 50c | 27.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 52c | 27.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d6…c308backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 50c | 23.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaee…2ed9backed No | 52c | 23.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…ca58backed No | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9c…7e2fbacked Yes | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed No | 52c | 20.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.