Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x562838422685e7e1cd05344ac4e1cca64c9cb52583a620bf56c28a166c03ecf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed Yes | 50c | 4,873$2,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,445.17 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 1c | 4,820$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 56c | 3,858$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,164.53 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 13c | 2,306$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.78 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,014$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 55c | 1,587$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.47 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe923…aa3cbacked Yes | 54c | 1,103$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 56c | 1,076$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.79 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +185%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 56c | 769.16$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.23 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Yes | 10c | 750$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 13c | 744$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.94 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 50c | 685.65$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.92 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 44c | 676.77$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.72 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 6c | 635.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 2c | 626.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…9ac2backed No | 80c | 600.27$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +1,033.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 49c | 449.95$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.51 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 49c | 406$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4454…f6bfbacked No | 51c | 401.92$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 50c | 364.76$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.38 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 14c | 276$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 35c | 272.49$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 261.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 222.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 16c | 221.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 50c | 198$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.02 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 29c | 184.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d08…9eb8backed No | 47c | 180.33$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8c…1c84backed Yes | 75c | 170.8$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 49c | 157.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 30c | 154.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed No | 54c | 152.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97b…ed3bbacked No | 57c | 148.46$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd0…9654backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…dbf8backed Yes | 52c | 95.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 46c | 86.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked Yes | 49c | 86.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 25c | 86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 46c | 84.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 73c | 83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 27c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…51c8backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…d18bbacked No | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…2aadbacked Yes | 52c | 77.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 45c | 69.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 43c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 55c | 64.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed Yes | 47c | 61.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 45c | 60.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 53c | 60.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 47c | 53.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f74…a597backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed Yes | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d18…eae7backed Yes | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f6…146abacked No | 43c | 46.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…8cd7backed Yes | 51c | 38.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed Yes | 53c | 38.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…fcbabacked Yes | 31c | 32.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…babfbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…d988backed Yes | 48c | 30.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed No | 38c | 29.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0780…4c58backed No | 50c | 27.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 50c | 26.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 42c | 24.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…e8e7backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…76aabacked No | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.