Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5169d3c9f051dfb7ee5691591f062fe8b9ffe63a3ba2db9be998158ed00ad0e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 11c | 1,277$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.87 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed No | 79c | 1,256$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.97 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 900.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 13c | 866.22$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.42 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 8c | 819.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 25c | 771.34$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 19c | 744$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 15c | 490.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 11c | 418.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 21c | 402.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 5c | 214.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 13c | 189.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 184.71$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 21c | 172.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4454…f6bfbacked Yes | 11c | 167$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 125.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…82ebbacked Yes | 24c | 106.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…773dbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1446…3468backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 17c | 96.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 18c | 68.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 73c | 59.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 26c | 54.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 44.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 77c | 40.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 80c | 20.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.