Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ffccc47fdb7a94728b7f0881991b4288e5ec2cde965accc54895572ce2c90bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed Yes | 76c | 4,497$3,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.98 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 30c | 2,531$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.05 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370d…66aabacked Yes | 75c | 1,028$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 17c | 937.82$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.52 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 33c | 794.02$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.03 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 49c | 744$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.3 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 25c | 706$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 29c | 677.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.73 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed Yes | 72c | 658.25$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 565.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 15c | 560.36$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.85 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe923…aa3cbacked Yes | 73c | 502.02$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 34c | 441.65$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.92 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 30c | 422.18$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.43 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e14…4476backed No | 63c | 391.99$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d08…9eb8backed No | 37c | 371.4$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 24c | 367.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.21 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…fd0dbacked Yes | 69c | 333.14$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes | 32c | 323.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 65c | 306.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 72c | 278.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 34c | 277.32$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.65 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9a…5f43backed No | 64c | 265.79$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 261.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 40c | 260$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 226.7$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 9c | 224.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 223.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 24c | 193.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 14c | 184.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.25 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 8c | 174.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 58c | 157.51$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0780…4c58backed Yes | 42c | 152.08$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…f1fbbacked Yes | 51c | 151.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 40c | 148$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd0…9654backed Yes | 34c | 147.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed No | 44c | 145.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed No | 27c | 140$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 138.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866b…c133backed Yes | 65c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…773dbacked No | 35c | 113.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 28c | 109$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked Yes | 16c | 102.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +523.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 31c | 100.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…9ac2backed No | 17c | 100.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +1,033.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…012abacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…ff78backed Yes | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 18c | 87.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 35c | 87.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…74dcbacked Yes | 68c | 87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb97b…ed3bbacked No | 43c | 86.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 27c | 75.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…babfbacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 52c | 68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…dbf8backed Yes | 76c | 64.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 31c | 60.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb77f…d099backed No | 19c | 58.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 32c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 58c | 56.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 50.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 28c | 48.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 24c | 48.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07c…c577backed No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 67c | 46.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 35c | 45.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 71c | 44.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 54c | 44.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3246…63dfbacked Yes | 71c | 42.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…3348backed Yes | 71c | 41.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked No | 32c | 40.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…9b5fbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 60c | 36.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…8cd7backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2782…1320backed No | 37c | 31.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…82ebbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01a…54ddbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 34c | 29.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 42c | 24.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…a901backed Yes | 49c | 22.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…34a3backed Yes | 64c | 20.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…3f99backed No | 59c | 20.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…4803backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.