Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74519ab5a31fa64dbdd744b85baa4e98cdf19acd993977de3c56163a2c9cde7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 76c | 2,164$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.12 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…3c00backed Yes | 7c | 2,057$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…a995backed Yes | 51c | 1,266$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked Yes | 22c | 776.38$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.67 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4454…f6bfbacked Yes | 50c | 653.92$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 49c | 490.01$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.9 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 52c | 418.87$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.87 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…e122backed Yes | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.57 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 50c | 363.89$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.95 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 53c | 348.57$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.91 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 48c | 300$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 63c | 299.99$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 52c | 286.79$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b1…9643backed Yes | 53c | 271.74$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac5b…2979backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…63b2backed Yes | 53c | 216.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 49c | 205.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 52c | 199.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 48c | 197.61$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.76 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f2…bbebbacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 9c | 152.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 52c | 150.61$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 49c | 120.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 50c | 105$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 48c | 104$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…f7c0backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…74dcbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…fda6backed Yes | 53c | 98.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…f1fbbacked Yes | 52c | 45.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…35dcbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…a400backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7f…4e57backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…9ea8backed Yes | 53c | 36.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…fb8cbacked Yes | 52c | 31.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…3348backed Yes | 53c | 30.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 41c | 26.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4314backed Yes | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 78c | 24.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da0…72fabacked No | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…a5a9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.