Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b111cc5ff4d973bcf51dbbe8521bbad7b3adfcab5b7f09a03878d606b8dea5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,674$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 4c | 1,443$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 3c | 1,314$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…562ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,228$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 14c | 1,197$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.48 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 2c | 1,172$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,037$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.42 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 1,022$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 672.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 17c | 616.14$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…37ebbacked Yes | 19c | 536.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 16c | 450.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 388.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 9c | 362.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…82ebbacked Yes | 13c | 292.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 4c | 288.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 38c | 262.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 236.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 20c | 230$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes | 41c | 165.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 20c | 149.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 140.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 21c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…98c0backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 14c | 102.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c2…6361backed Yes | 12c | 91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 22c | 86.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd449…d3d3backed Yes | 17c | 84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 55c | 76.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 24c | 73.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 70.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed Yes | 19c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.