TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf7e6…98e7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Weather, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT4143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+99.2%+$11.91
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+165.1%+$19.81
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+262.9%+$42.06
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+93.8%+$29.39
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+47.2%+$16.54
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$12.4
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$11.85
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.71
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+146.8%+$17.62
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.99
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.17
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+35.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+114.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+328.7%+$39.45
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Passion UA (BO3)backed Passion UA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+58.7%+$8
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3)backed Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Team Liquid Brazil vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5)backed Team Liquid Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+96.1%+$12.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$13.95
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.