TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Aston Villa vs. Arsenal end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$257,387
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$258,102

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,387 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb2e4…bc51backed Yes28c123,315$34,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,8425324.5%13 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No72c50,000$36,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,999.9921154.5%115 W · 96 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No71c18,818$13,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,457.232,21249.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L-9.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked No72c18,230$13,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,104.3335941.5%149 W · 210 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked No38c10,384$3,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,425.9429253.4%156 W · 136 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No67c8,616$5,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,876.252,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ee…47c8backed Yes28c8,414$2,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3681050%5 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+96.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes28c8,275$2,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,317.011,21241.7%505 W · 707 L-1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No72c7,760$5,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.8611846.6%55 W · 63 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No71c7,317$5,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,121.931,27250.4%641 W · 631 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf209…97e1backed Yes28c6,674$1,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,897.17028.6%20 W · 50 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes45c6,451$2,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,917.736,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No36c6,337$2,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,067.351,00446.3%465 W · 539 L+25.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No36c5,617$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,617.124,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes28c5,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4003119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No72c4,902$3,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.481,00646.6%469 W · 537 L-20.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No72c4,090$2,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.2956453.9%304 W · 260 L+27.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Yes27c3,333$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.912634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96012642.9%54 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe045…c149backed No72c3,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8403850%19 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No73c3,000$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81020448.5%99 W · 105 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes28c2,153$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.841,14642.8%490 W · 656 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed No69c2,061$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.811162.2%69 W · 42 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56040046%184 W · 216 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58046651.9%242 W · 224 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Yes60c1,990$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20012345.5%56 W · 67 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x249f…37e4backed No73c1,644$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No72c1,500$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.1330851.3%158 W · 150 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No56c1,030$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.2167042.2%283 W · 387 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec8b…152bbacked No72c1,011$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.11955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe952…bde4backed No47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5301361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No71c957.75$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.7549254.9%270 W · 222 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked No72c929.93$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.051,20450.7%610 W · 594 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed No71c882.97$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.3329259.2%173 W · 119 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe82b…91d3backed Yes33c790.04$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.24475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed No69c749.98$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.492516%4 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-61.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53b8…0ee6backed Yes28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Yes64c703.56$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.5721965.3%143 W · 76 L+20.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xd538…317cbacked Yes32c680.88$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22022125.8%57 W · 164 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed No73c606.9$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.865164.7%33 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8276…1204backed No73c582.19$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.192373.9%17 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5ed9backed Yes28c571.43$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601650%8 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+44.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0594…6d4dbacked Yes58c551.72$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b4…1081backed Yes28c535.71$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507755.8%43 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked No57c526.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.321145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca3…590fbacked No73c516.64$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.497742.9%33 W · 44 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes39c513.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.25280.8%42 W · 10 L+13.0wins+0.25per pick56cpaid+57%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed Yes79c506.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001450%7 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed No71c501.61$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.4725551.8%132 W · 123 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83d…3324backed Yes29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1452544%11 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x74e1…e6a2backed Yes46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No39c494.89$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.2157744.4%256 W · 321 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No39c451$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.471,16357.4%667 W · 496 L+40.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes28c446.43$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12515025.3%38 W · 112 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bae…55b5backed Yes28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1128742.5%37 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4125…b55dbacked Yes65c398.51$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x347c…525abacked Yes28c357.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011446.5%53 W · 61 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes28c350.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8936036.1%130 W · 230 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e7…0febbacked No71c350$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.52055%11 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0df…8f41backed No71c343$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.167176.1%54 W · 17 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick69cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9b1…815bbacked Yes3c325$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+59.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa231…a91ebacked Yes31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Yes29c320.69$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935543.6%24 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e8f…6b61backed No38c314.74$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.9315238.8%59 W · 93 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7d…aecabacked Yes32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+46.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked Yes32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011142.3%47 W · 64 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8913…541cbacked No73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked No66c299.99$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10217748%85 W · 92 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes67c278$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.6361441.2%253 W · 361 L-27.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Yes28c256$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6811945.4%54 W · 65 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes47c255.24$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.91,22440%490 W · 734 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d9d…992bbacked Yes28c250$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704531.1%14 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes27c232$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6868942.2%291 W · 398 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4781…336dbacked Yes31c229.03$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7118562.2%115 W · 70 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe351…e48dbacked No72c224.21$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7815350.3%77 W · 76 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a53…8c81backed Yes31c216.13$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68e…663cbacked Yes31c210$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+92.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0909…833dbacked Yes32c203.13$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x621c…1192backed Yes28c201.61$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x154b…4917backed No72c200.01$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566053.3%32 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5618551.9%96 W · 89 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcab9…675bbacked Yes73c200$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6673…8a4cbacked Yes28c190$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.25230.8%16 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Yes54c185.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012649.2%62 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Yes60c180$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10811557.4%66 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2937…ad07backed Yes28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a2d…6db9backed Yes28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015543.9%68 W · 87 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd659…4abbbacked Yes28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503040%12 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7350…9dc0backed Yes28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018239.6%72 W · 110 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6524…dbbbbacked Yes28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ee7…0ba8backed No57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.446743.3%29 W · 38 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Yes35c165.45$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5340150.1%201 W · 200 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d34…dba8backed Yes30c160$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2702…2640backed Yes32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-66.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc380…d34abacked Yes28c153.57$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6b…7b61backed No69c150$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.54658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ea…0b14backed Yes28c150$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-0.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8439…11c0backed Yes67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedc…8bcabacked Yes32c146.88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471942.1%8 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2387…adadbacked Yes28c142.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408229.3%24 W · 58 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.