TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump and Putin meet next in US?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$679,383
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$688,313

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $679,383 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d37…f4a4backed No6c102,826$6,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,330.23170%0 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No3c24,892$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.0610812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee83…f6d7backed No6c22,543$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.646913%9 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed No5c20,323$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.53724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3486…2196backed No5c19,732$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No5c16,835$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.198725.3%22 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf162…ba35backed No9c8,373$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.38560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ba…1bd1backed No1c7,830$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.15616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-77.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcb0…0449backed No4c6,000$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1284…bbcdbacked No2c5,898$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6990%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No3c5,500$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.6651.5%1 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdec3…ebc5backed No7c4,504$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.02911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-71.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c4,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5180%0 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No8c4,129$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.883933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No2c3,996$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8713910.8%15 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc1b…b19ebacked No4c3,415$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No7c3,350$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.691266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…5903backed No15c3,000$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.331040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No8c3,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23023435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No11c2,723$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.111526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes23c2,635$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,038.032540%10 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No8c2,468$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.912528%7 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick11cpaid+190.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No8c2,402$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.583729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+134.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No5c2,398$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.78175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-85.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No9c2,390$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.1626318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x002a…9a00backed No9c2,347$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55eb…8890backed No9c2,344$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c2,301$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.615327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49b3…6486backed No9c2,276$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No11c2,180$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.82441.7%10 W · 14 L+6.8wins+0.28per pick14cpaid+203.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x74b8…9922backed No18c2,165$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dec…4df8backed No9c2,120$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbf3…af21backed No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45c8…f309backed No8c1,744$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.83185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-91.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf19a…6b67backed No9c1,570$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x978f…b906backed No7c1,527$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x634c…7ec5backed No7c1,471$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7319…0299backed No10c1,349$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.496814.7%10 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd120…9055backed No10c1,300$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb38e…272bbacked No2c1,258$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.731811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-71.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ca2…134fbacked No2c1,179$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9e0…2225backed No9c1,132$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.211838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b2…bf35backed No9c1,059$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.28per pick30cpaid+170.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No4c1,053$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.331020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ce…d9dfbacked No8c1,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a26…915dbacked No5c996.1$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.23728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-57.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39ac…90fbbacked No21c965.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+76.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked No11c920.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0df3…f15abacked No5c917.9$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.271435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No37c900$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.3821426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed No13c899.64$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.728615.1%13 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc107…9039backed No9c827.08$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7150%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x462d…106dbacked No13c775.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x440d…af9bbacked No3c774.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.711625%4 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-54.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd410…e268backed No13c759.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked No14c751.84$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.866930.4%21 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aee…b919backed No5c736.04$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4c…f485backed No15c689.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e3…5b07backed No9c660$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0e9…3295backed No11c652.54$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-71.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2308…68e4backed No7c605.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18f0…2be2backed No7c561.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No9c536.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509734%33 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7870…0d10backed No10c518.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…ef6abacked No11c500$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2036…ea55backed No10c490.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ddd…3f80backed No4c488$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x950a…71e4backed No5c471.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb8…d33cbacked No5c469.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No5c453.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4839429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed No3c432.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.294628.3%13 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-52.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8761…7936backed No5c404$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed No5c400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.992924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe96a…3a35backed No4c394$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c2…1e7fbacked No4c379.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed No24c359.3$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.41140%0 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x048d…a493backed No6c340$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c4…33b2backed No9c335.58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No56c333$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.482065%13 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0ac…23c1backed No11c327.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0394…0bbdbacked No4c322$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6b…6ed5backed No3c321$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No11c300$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.97247.2%34 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48be…7e32backed No5c294$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9025…b4bdbacked No9c279.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa89d…52e1backed No7c277.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.42450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ebf…6961backed No4c272.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde3…719abacked No18c272.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f86…3a77backed No5c253.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbd…29b8backed No5c236$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7bd…2ac5backed No9c233.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef12…58e6backed No5c230$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea81…673fbacked No9c227.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.25820.7%12 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a6d…1e7cbacked No8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2951…8f9fbacked No9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.42119%4 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+307.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e16…981ebacked No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…15d4backed No8c181$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f25…cf87backed No8c176.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No8c176.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154942.9%21 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.