Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb5f415a77fb16d4a96d19909c86f93204b8835664f3bfa9af92a349e2d30a25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $927,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $723,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $927,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked No | 9c | 31,237$2,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,759.17 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 2c | 22,155$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.75 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 47c | 19,979$9,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,362.94 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f71…1016backed No | 8c | 18,703$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.25 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…1409backed No | 7c | 17,527$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdd…0b26backed No | 6c | 13,385$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…169abacked No | 1c | 11,356$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…563bbacked No | 9c | 9,862$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 1c | 8,944$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49bf…4fd7backed No | 4c | 5,948$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf51…0f7cbacked No | 8c | 5,048$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…cb8abacked No | 1c | 4,674$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed No | 2c | 4,355$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…099dbacked Yes | 34c | 4,324$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,835.68 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed No | 11c | 4,096$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.27 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6e…7057backed No | 4c | 3,560$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…341bbacked No | 7c | 2,857$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…eda4backed No | 4c | 2,829$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…4343backed No | 6c | 2,616$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,603$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked No | 8c | 2,497$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.79 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 49c | 2,495$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.35 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e9…81cdbacked No | 8c | 2,489$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…2e81backed No | 17c | 2,337$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7109…b187backed No | 8c | 2,318$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 1c | 2,301$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64a…9588backed No | 4c | 2,222$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…ba50backed Yes | 28c | 2,214$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +235%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 1c | 2,018$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed Yes | 37c | 1,792$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.1 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 50c | 1,758$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.42 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 2c | 1,690$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad76…daa4backed No | 6c | 1,685$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 28c | 1,674$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.07 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed No | 2c | 1,400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x043a…1929backed No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d86fbacked No | 65c | 1,200$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 12c | 1,188$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 39c | 1,174$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.51 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1069backed No | 4c | 1,067$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9608…f4d4backed No | 3c | 1,021$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 6c | 1,021$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 4c | 1,015$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 4c | 988.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…ab0ebacked Yes | 61c | 988.5$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.78 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.57per pick | 31cpaid | +264.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…29eabacked No | 3c | 962.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 2c | 948.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed No | 19c | 844.1$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.03 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 56c | 709.09$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…d771backed No | 7c | 630$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 67c | 614.18$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.02 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…5aa4backed No | 4c | 552.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 29c | 550$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351d…0ebebacked No | 8c | 531.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…1ca7backed No | 4c | 526.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3d…56b9backed Yes | 42c | 522.06$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed No | 2c | 513$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd363…e6d1backed No | 4c | 507.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…534ebacked No | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d85…a385backed Yes | 32c | 497.85$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.84 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 32c | 474.61$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.2 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfb…6d69backed No | 16c | 457.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a1…7b89backed No | 5c | 444$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 58c | 438.83$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.68 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…cd35backed No | 7c | 414.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 28c | 410$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.4 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…f267backed No | 3c | 395.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…16febacked No | 4c | 385.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…51afbacked No | 4c | 384.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 79c | 353.71$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcffd…65ccbacked No | 15c | 350$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5066…e009backed No | 3c | 330$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc93…55edbacked Yes | 34c | 325.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.18 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 37c | 324$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.36 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +54%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 33c | 306.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.06 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…61d6backed No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 4c | 287.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…04babacked No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…9d72backed No | 8c | 262.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271c…af71backed Yes | 38c | 261.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…0232backed No | 37c | 256.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25a8backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 67c | 249.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.49 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed Yes | 29c | 232$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.26 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed No | 6c | 225$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 30c | 225$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…b119backed No | 8c | 220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…182cbacked Yes | 79c | 201.76$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…b3e8backed Yes | 46c | 200$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 20c | 198.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked No | 25c | 196.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc404…1af8backed No | 58c | 190.83$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c34…c8b8backed Yes | 28c | 190$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…ad1dbacked Yes | 52c | 181.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0993…744ebacked No | 7c | 180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.