Music · resolved market
Will Nicole Scherzinger win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Musical 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f58b1f4f489012ed9a9b0d4303bb872298260f76a67fbd61bdefe1c0f6ca95c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x272c…2c93backed Yes | 56c | 38,904$21,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,117.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…d6b0backed No | 44c | 38,904$17,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,117.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8466…0f1ebacked No | 53c | 35,167$18,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,638.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…1975backed Yes | 47c | 35,167$16,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,638.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 5c | 1,650$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Yes | 63c | 350.5$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 43c | 321.66$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.26 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 63c | 202$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.43 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 52c | 103$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 43c | 102$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 49c | 93.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed Yes | 43c | 85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 83.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 52c | 76.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 52c | 75.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed No | 57c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +215.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 49c | 63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 48c | 57.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 48c | 53.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 47c | 49.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe269…01fdbacked Yes | 47c | 48.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0757…6daebacked Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 53c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…5ca1backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…df08backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dba…e009backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ae…a7cdbacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…c807backed Yes | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9b…b6fbbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4592…85fcbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2561…4aedbacked No | 54c | 27.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…87d2backed No | 55c | 20.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 52c | 20.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdccb…33d0backed Yes | 60c | 16.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nicole Scherzinger win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Musical 2025?this page
- Will Audra McDonald win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Musical 2025?No won
- Will Jasmine Amy Rogers win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Musical 2025?No won
- Will Jennifer Simard win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Musical 2025?No won
- Will Megan Hilty win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Musical 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.