Music · resolved market
Will Audra McDonald win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Musical 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc51b6b7e05d042bd999ac6b0411bd54f3c4a90780e7c43a02ac31b8c2e6b2ec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc82f…670fbacked Yes | 38c | 34,156$12,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,979.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9537…dc8fbacked No | 62c | 34,156$21,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,979.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…6ba7backed No | 61c | 32,178$19,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,549.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78a…adb0backed Yes | 39c | 32,178$12,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,549.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…ffbfbacked Yes | 42c | 30,036$12,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,615.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ac…b598backed No | 58c | 30,036$17,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,615.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504b…ab82backed No | 64c | 540$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…f570backed Yes | 36c | 540$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 41c | 500$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 60c | 360.43$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.87 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…c111backed No | 59c | 205.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 37c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 22c | 198.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 33c | 187.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 34c | 182.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 65c | 167.58$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 32c | 131$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 33c | 128.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 126.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 58c | 126$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 30c | 104.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 59c | 97.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 69c | 96.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 30c | 93.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 34c | 75.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 38c | 74.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 71.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 39c | 65.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 59.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb489…1995backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4599…2f11backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…c5e7backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf6…3f31backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4598…2b33backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dad…1123backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de5…8d4abacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Audra McDonald win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Musical 2025?this page
- Will Jasmine Amy Rogers win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Musical 2025?No won
- Will Jennifer Simard win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Musical 2025?No won
- Will Megan Hilty win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Musical 2025?No won
- Will Nicole Scherzinger win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Musical 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.