Us Politics · resolved market
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2abe3b86f1d23d65f3d710d6c413a0f0021013fc77a3450876b6d7a307de90a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb66…3103backed Yes | 18c | 20,228$3,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,637.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…7201backed Yes | 15c | 8,163$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 2c | 7,387$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…8a7cbacked Yes | 12c | 4,464$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,279$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,736$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 7c | 2,169$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.08 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 12c | 1,900$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.13 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 57cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 1,858$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.79 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4655…4825backed Yes | 9c | 1,777$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b01…c469backed Yes | 14c | 1,757$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 11c | 1,740$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.92 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…4c9fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,059$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 8c | 999$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c805backed Yes | 15c | 807.05$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8338…8be1backed Yes | 15c | 789.27$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 8c | 783$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 17c | 708.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.44 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 14c | 639.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151a…95bbbacked Yes | 17c | 586.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…7690backed Yes | 18c | 571.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a5…4179backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…b193backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Yes | 12c | 499.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9af1backed Yes | 10c | 420.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…ecd4backed Yes | 14c | 320.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…bdf4backed Yes | 8c | 312.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 306.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…3abfbacked Yes | 10c | 295.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2b…207ebacked Yes | 14c | 256.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe561…a68dbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe493…47a9backed Yes | 11c | 231$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…0b9bbacked Yes | 17c | 230.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 17c | 230$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd31…b675backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…7db6backed Yes | 16c | 225.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…9251backed Yes | 14c | 210$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 14c | 204.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa600…36c7backed Yes | 11c | 190.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ae…0974backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 11c | 175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…b497backed Yes | 16c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed Yes | 17c | 156.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 14c | 152.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 14c | 144.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed Yes | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 139.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…7b8bbacked Yes | 14c | 134.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…9a30backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0c…25dfbacked Yes | 17c | 115.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 108$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…a69abacked Yes | 25c | 101.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 13c | 94.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…025ebacked Yes | 18c | 83.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…23e4backed Yes | 23c | 78.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2d…4dc5backed Yes | 14c | 74.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…6427backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb328…00debacked Yes | 15c | 68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d33…e532backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 21c | 52.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5f…8b27backed Yes | 28c | 42.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x288e…9ca7backed No | 77c | 15.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.