Movies · resolved market
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $3m and $5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98f1d99a568379dab45a6ca14d82ba1e09ff0e36148a7f64007009ca2fe7ec1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 7,711$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…77a1backed Yes | 3c | 4,319$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 2c | 4,176$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 11c | 1,888$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 11c | 1,700$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 11c | 1,248$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.83 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 11c | 769.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 24c | 500$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 13c | 220$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 10c | 220$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 204.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 102$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 21c | 99.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 14c | 90.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked No | 77c | 52.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…cbcdbacked No | 75c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 72c | 25.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $3m and $5m?this page
- Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be $7m or more?No won
- Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5m and $7m?Yes won
- Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $3m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.