Movies · resolved market
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5m and $7m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaf4c51d088f980cdd248dd4e0d8988d0615529fc0d71cce81e9a8113927dbe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 10,537$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed No | 10c | 1,628$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 44c | 1,041$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.64 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…80a7backed Yes | 65c | 914.36$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.71 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…77a1backed No | 4c | 570$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 10c | 560$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 29c | 458.54$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.52 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 38c | 321$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.02 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 11c | 272.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 40c | 217.27$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.36 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 74c | 202.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 45c | 158.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.03 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 40c | 119.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 26c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 76.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 32c | 76.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 49c | 66.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 56c | 62.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 79c | 60.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 65c | 58.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 57c | 51.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 53c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.34per pick | 53cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…abd1backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 58c | 43.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…56b0backed Yes | 46c | 43.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 41.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77ea…b6b5backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 54c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 58c | 21.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5m and $7m?this page
- Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be $7m or more?No won
- Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $3m and $5m?No won
- Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $3m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.