Movies · resolved market
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be $7m or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x223216b9aeba00732419090d9e0abe3c8bf80906081a3edb5baef1a0f005dc97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x465f…56b5backed No | 37c | 35,205$13,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,179.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…4b7ebacked Yes | 63c | 35,205$22,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,179.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 15,624$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.04 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…77a1backed Yes | 6c | 8,367$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes | 3c | 7,158$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.55 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 7,146$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…4f61backed Yes | 0c | 6,745$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…5e10backed Yes | 1c | 4,413$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 40c | 2,998$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.96 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 8c | 2,530$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b5…82eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,292$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 8c | 2,040$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.93 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 4c | 1,913$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 4c | 1,785$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 11c | 1,698$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…80a7backed Yes | 51c | 1,391$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed No | 51c | 1,125$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.41 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked No | 45c | 877.57$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 764.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed Yes | 2c | 670$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 66c | 561.9$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.6 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 541.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575e…5b86backed Yes | 5c | 426.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…33e9backed Yes | 5c | 418.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…3e04backed Yes | 47c | 349.7$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.55 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 59c | 349$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.75 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 31c | 335.51$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.01 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 3c | 333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed No | 78c | 317.76$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…cbcdbacked Yes | 33c | 300$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 62c | 299.26$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.26 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 5c | 262.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 63c | 221.59$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 6c | 203.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f28…82e0backed Yes | 6c | 183.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 167.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 22c | 151.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 47c | 131.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…56b0backed Yes | 32c | 123.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 54c | 110.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 94.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked Yes | 27c | 93.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 26c | 76.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7e…d472backed No | 55c | 49.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 56c | 21.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8a…b6dfbacked Yes | 47c | 21.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed No | 67c | 20.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be $7m or more?this page
- Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $3m and $5m?No won
- Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5m and $7m?Yes won
- Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $3m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.