Us Politics · resolved market
Ghislaine Maxwell accuses Trump of sexual misconduct?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3270b116f7e61aa04f9652fff783e6e25a6b2c99df092a709a03f9b662d1dd41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 9c | 7,690$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.85 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 2,236$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 78c | 1,516$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.3 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed Yes | 1c | 1,475$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 19c | 1,200$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.25 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 14c | 780$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.9 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2d…1039backed Yes | 13c | 761.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…85cabacked Yes | 21c | 596.29$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bd…290fbacked Yes | 13c | 568$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 513.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…cf2abacked Yes | 13c | 444.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 444$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…e223backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c70…0340backed Yes | 24c | 370.69$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 79c | 290$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 11c | 285.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 18c | 260.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 8c | 258$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd27e…e909backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…a839backed Yes | 5c | 204.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +200%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb4…d58ebacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c8…117dbacked Yes | 13c | 106.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…fc76backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b8…ff77backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd2…abdebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…63d8backed Yes | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 11c | 94.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 19c | 94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…c3a1backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1707…081ebacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…3ba6backed Yes | 19c | 67.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 18c | 57.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.