Will Lee Jae-myung win Busan (부산) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38044dc4d6719c1c7b4b714478de0b135a1e31fbdfed4b4fb1f64327dd67a362

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $38,990
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,990 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes	1c	11,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	54	14.8%8 W · 46 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Yes	13c	2,342$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.87	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe529…e7b1backed No	79c	2,000$1,582 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$418.25	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbd…ed66backed Yes	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-3.4wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x46aa…690ebacked Yes	13c	1,790$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.25	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe58…ee71backed No	76c	1,438$1,098 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$340.33	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	19c	1,310$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.57	457	23.2%106 W · 351 L	-15.8wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	1c	1,069$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.01	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes	16c	685.5$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.93	43	18.6%8 W · 35 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+15%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes	22c	550$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.85	45	17.8%8 W · 37 L	-4.3wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b5d…b69cbacked Yes	14c	500$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.6wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-63.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe238…27b3backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c4…3e4ebacked Yes	12c	413.41$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.02	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+3.2wins	+0.21per pick	12cpaid	+312.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	20c	325.95$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.8	576	36.3%209 W · 367 L	-27.2wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed Yes	43c	300$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	78	28.2%22 W · 56 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	30c	300$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	884	48.5%429 W · 455 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a52…3e04backed Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-30%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76ff…c3bfbacked Yes	35c	285.34$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	12c	282.84$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.09	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes	10c	277$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.47	182	14.8%27 W · 155 L	+11.4wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+218.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes	25c	220$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cd7…507cbacked No	67c	204.03$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.83	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeaf…998cbacked No	60c	200$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+63.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7190…02d8backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	13%3 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Yes	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	+5.2wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+31%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc3c…b218backed No	66c	200$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68	63	31.7%20 W · 43 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes	10c	184.35$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.44	44	22.7%10 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes	16c	150$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf919…4b10backed Yes	24c	136.77$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.82	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-2.7wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed No	68c	134.51$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.7	170	44.1%75 W · 95 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76f1…bc8fbacked No	64c	123.19$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.02	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf921…94dbbacked No	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	131	18.3%24 W · 107 L	-6.9wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1613…3909backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes	14c	86$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No	73c	74.54$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.36	42	50%21 W · 21 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x278f…715fbacked No	63c	68.61$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.04	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d5b…3f99backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes	32c	61.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+3.2wins	+0.12per pick	26cpaid	+143.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd41c…5098backed Yes	30c	61.53$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No	77c	60$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	57	40.4%23 W · 34 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ec…a2c6backed Yes	29c	59.87$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.36	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	37cpaid	+36.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa70b…a81dbacked No	68c	58.82$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.82	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+19%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed Yes	26c	51.63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.42	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff0…980abacked No	69c	50$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bcb…8569backed Yes	41c	42.96$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No	61c	40$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	90	37.8%34 W · 56 L	+6.5wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No	68c	31$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.92	380	23.9%91 W · 289 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	43c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.83	367	42.5%156 W · 211 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a8…1250backed No	69c	22.96$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.14	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-63.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Lee Jae-myung win Busan (부산) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event