World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win Seoul (서울) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dd02098d85ce31ebd99d53dd5a31691c032e0451470435aec30675ac7574350
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $427,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $388,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $427,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1281…8d51backed No | 8c | 84,353$6,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,732.8 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f14…8121backed No | 0c | 17,578$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…5148backed No | 3c | 15,303$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.16 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +5.7wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae67…bfd0backed No | 5c | 14,564$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 6c | 11,860$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.19 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…cebebacked No | 0c | 10,037$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda8e…ef90backed No | 7c | 9,787$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…67bcbacked No | 3c | 9,165$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +176%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed No | 6c | 7,139$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.48 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc4…31aebacked No | 5c | 6,923$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…3a15backed No | 7c | 5,800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed No | 2c | 5,198$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0192…7f11backed No | 6c | 5,055$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…db7cbacked No | 6c | 5,000$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.01 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84c…4b4dbacked No | 5c | 4,900$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.14 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…0ff4backed No | 2c | 3,852$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…3fbcbacked No | 5c | 2,856$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…a2c6backed No | 5c | 2,778$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…4a58backed No | 1c | 2,544$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed No | 6c | 2,539$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067d…7e5ebacked No | 9c | 2,425$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…3e45backed No | 8c | 2,373$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…1339backed No | 4c | 2,316$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…bcc6backed No | 5c | 2,155$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x861a…6ab4backed No | 5c | 2,100$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf978…cf69backed No | 4c | 1,789$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 5c | 1,738$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 6c | 1,300$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…bff0backed No | 5c | 1,206$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 6c | 1,165$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf178…18a1backed No | 2c | 1,024$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +72%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…d4dcbacked No | 3c | 962$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 5cpaid | +178.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 8c | 931.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 10c | 926.42$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb448…7ec2backed No | 6c | 897.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 11c | 869.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 835$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 703.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed No | 5c | 535.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x184c…d7bdbacked No | 2c | 516.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1613…3909backed No | 5c | 496.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…4ef3backed No | 5c | 491.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8d…0e23backed No | 4c | 461.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa92e…b018backed No | 5c | 371.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…15debacked No | 4c | 295.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…3e4ebacked No | 6c | 271.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +312.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 254$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 6c | 219.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 8c | 215.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c58…c2ddbacked No | 8c | 189.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Seoul (서울) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Busan (부산) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Chungbuk State (충청북도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Chungnam State (충청남도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Daegu (대구) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Daejeon (대전) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Gangwon State (강원특별자치도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Gwangju (광주) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Gyeonggi Province (경기도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Gyeongnam State (경상남도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Incheon (인천) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Jeju Province (제주도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Jeonnam State (전라남도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Ulsan (울산) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.