Will Lee Jae-myung win Ulsan (울산) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33a04f72ab65a44bb924389e3a133e928ce5052b2511e00d2775cb30420002a1

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $23,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $21,535

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,083 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2dbd…ed66backed Yes	55c	6,000$3,277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,276.83	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-3.4wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed No	51c	3,168$1,610 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,558.24	205	38%78 W · 127 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b5d…b69cbacked Yes	49c	2,120$1,043 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,043.17	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.6wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-63.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf619…d903backed No	50c	1,750$875 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$875	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.9wins	+0.38per pick	42cpaid	+81.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f2a…1cb2backed No	17c	1,291$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,066.37	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed No	58c	1,168$679 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$489.31	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	+5.5wins	+0.09per pick	30cpaid	+102.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe529…e7b1backed No	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500.18	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…3186backed No	14c	869.07$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$749.07	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+6.0wins	+0.40per pick	13cpaid	+770.1%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick
0x36e8…712abacked No	22c	832.02$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$646.91	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+3.4wins	+0.43per pick	32cpaid	+165.7%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6ae8…b41abacked No	55c	735$404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330.75	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	50cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf919…4b10backed Yes	42c	583.46$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.78	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-2.7wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf54…5abbbacked Yes	45c	575$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.75	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.33per pick	42cpaid	+93.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No	13c	564.26$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490.48	43	18.6%8 W · 35 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+15%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No	60c	500$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	57	40.4%23 W · 34 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5250…a811backed Yes	44c	472.87$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.6wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes	56c	447.87$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.61	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+10.7wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	25c	403.87$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303.87	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+3.2wins	+0.12per pick	26cpaid	+143.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed Yes	43c	300$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	78	28.2%22 W · 56 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bc4…31aebacked No	42c	288$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	13cpaid	+153.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked No	50c	287.35$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.77	66	48.5%32 W · 34 L	-5.2wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	6c	284$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$268.28	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc84c…4b4dbacked No	51c	270$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.3	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	16cpaid	+35.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72ca…8617backed No	55c	265$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.25	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes	6c	262.39$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.74	72	25%18 W · 54 L	+9.7wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+262.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3a6e…5f22backed No	52c	245$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.25	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+56.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	53c	233.86$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.34	576	36.3%209 W · 367 L	-27.2wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8bf…9281backed Yes	45c	230$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe852…0235backed No	64c	213.65$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.65	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	38cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbac5…f530backed Yes	45c	195$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.75	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb21…8145backed No	63c	160.57$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.71	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x28e2…ab8fbacked No	62c	148.45$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.45	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+3.5wins	+0.29per pick	37cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6d5b…3f99backed Yes	53c	131.81$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.8	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34b…d77ebacked No	59c	121$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.82	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf060…b07abacked No	48c	118.6$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.49	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+2.5wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes	58c	110.58$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.31	43	65.1%28 W · 15 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae06…8acebacked No	29c	104.42$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.68	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	47c	102$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.94	1,318	43.9%579 W · 739 L	-26.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf921…94dbbacked No	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed No	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	120	29.2%35 W · 85 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+49.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cd7…507cbacked No	41c	100$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64f3…34b6backed Yes	48c	90$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58e7…5e2bbacked Yes	46c	66$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5010…75dfbacked No	46c	65$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.2	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked No	52c	55$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.4	55	30.9%17 W · 38 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4502…ce2fbacked No	76c	53$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.72	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.27per pick	67cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x131a…f23abacked Yes	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81ac…48cbbacked No	54c	46$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.16	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e11…b846backed No	31c	44.87$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.96	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92ff…d1a9backed No	55c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…5f15backed No	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.20per pick	43cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes	46c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa70b…a81dbacked No	65c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+19%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2894…c2f7backed No	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	45cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Lee Jae-myung win Ulsan (울산) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event