TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Lee Jae-myung win Chungbuk State (충청북도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,245
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,245 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x58a8…52febacked No32c2,020$646 inLost-$646.31533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed Yes72c2,000$1,450 inWon+$5507828.2%22 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae67…bfd0backed No4c1,000$38 inLost-$37.5812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+68.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2f31backed No19c842.77$163 inLost-$163.46726.9%18 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bc4…31aebacked No24c635.6$150 inLost-$150728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick13cpaid+153.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c616.01$26 inLost-$25.591,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dea…1339backed No3c575.16$20 inLost-$20119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-83.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No5c553$29 inLost-$28.894318.6%8 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2acb…bff0backed No12c542.55$66 inLost-$661010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f56…0ff4backed No10c486.05$49 inLost-$4950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No9c414.94$36 inLost-$36.124766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbe…4ef3backed No3c402$13 inLost-$12.96248.3%2 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…d77ebacked No10c361.96$35 inLost-$35.381225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387a…927dbacked No5c341$18 inLost-$17.511546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick31cpaid+50.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No3c303$10 inLost-$10.42939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28e2…ab8fbacked No18c160$29 inLost-$28.61266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+69.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No11c99.66$11 inLost-$10.7657636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a9d…9de8backed No31c64.99$20 inLost-$203821.1%8 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes73c20$15 inWon+$5.531443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.