World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win Gangwon State (강원특별자치도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9d844aac659069c62141ad125a0d1615f993066e1808c4363abbc5d77d02f87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 19c | 2,584$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,088.4 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked No | 17c | 1,505$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.12 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 55c | 1,273$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.5 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5e…7f28backed Yes | 50c | 1,158$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.38 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 8c | 1,123$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…f625backed No | 13c | 1,095$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…e7b1backed Yes | 50c | 999.95$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.42 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 3c | 900.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.63 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +6.0wins | +0.40per pick | 13cpaid | +770.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…7a1cbacked No | 23c | 727.02$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.78 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked No | 52c | 614.44$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.27 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked No | 75c | 613.07$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.1 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 468.03$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.88 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…3f99backed Yes | 41c | 408.76$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.86 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 57c | 336.99$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.67 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5d…b69cbacked Yes | 40c | 310.18$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.77 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…9091backed Yes | 45c | 278$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730c…d996backed No | 71c | 277.94$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 53c | 273$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.55 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…29e1backed Yes | 14c | 182.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce5…4958backed Yes | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes | 42c | 176.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 155.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Yes | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 27c | 125.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 101$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…56a1backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ae…7126backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +416.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa483…1d9ebacked Yes | 53c | 94.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 19c | 92.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…4b10backed Yes | 39c | 90.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6c…8020backed Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…c91ebacked No | 61c | 82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…980dbacked No | 76c | 74.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…ce2fbacked No | 74c | 61.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…b291backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…a811backed Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5010…75dfbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…ab8fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…5679backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf978…cf69backed No | 50c | 30.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…8c73backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 50c | 25.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 46c | 23.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a02…e61fbacked Yes | 50c | 21.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7377…6414backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Gangwon State (강원특별자치도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Busan (부산) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Chungbuk State (충청북도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Chungnam State (충청남도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Daegu (대구) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Daejeon (대전) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Gwangju (광주) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Gyeonggi Province (경기도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Gyeongnam State (경상남도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Incheon (인천) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Jeju Province (제주도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Jeonnam State (전라남도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Seoul (서울) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win Ulsan (울산) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.