TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran x Israel conflict ends by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$243,808
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$245,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,808 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes14c22,218$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,080.1337740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c12,300$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Yes2c9,623$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.31608.3%5 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes17c8,813$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.173050%15 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes19c7,794$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.7435347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes9c7,302$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.821520%3 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-59%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed Yes14c4,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes11c3,873$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.228617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes10c3,598$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.2148630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes18c3,535$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.576254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes5c3,476$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.853831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e02…b56dbacked Yes10c3,088$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.942626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb9…d6c3backed Yes14c3,066$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4141361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No80c2,271$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.27142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c2,063$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3343212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2816…b317backed No79c2,025$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes24c2,021$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.164126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c1,991$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.372078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes17c1,858$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.7831241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes1c1,856$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2126619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes12c1,813$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.686726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes15c1,687$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.3124234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes15c1,463$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.911136.9%41 W · 70 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed No77c1,446$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.363116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes2c1,415$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.711235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes2c1,410$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.64045%18 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3391…7200backed Yes14c1,387$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-28.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5d37…7182backed Yes4c1,309$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…bd88backed No80c1,257$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c1,211$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6542120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc028…9349backed Yes18c1,142$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.5760%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes1c1,138$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.626023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes14c1,084$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.6731649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes8c1,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.17812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No80c1,000$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.813748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x241f…3143backed No78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+29.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes14c993.96$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.649711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c933.15$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8189617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c922$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.891,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x080d…5d0fbacked Yes2c916.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes20c900$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17718151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes19c807.57$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.675827.6%16 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e45…a2c4backed Yes16c692.79$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.24650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes6c640$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.345843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes8c587.7$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.02663%2 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-95.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes17c580$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.433644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes18c542.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.097042.9%30 W · 40 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa619…efc8backed Yes19c533.7$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes17c500$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866136.1%22 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.542433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked Yes18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-54.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b36…0800backed Yes13c472.9$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes15c470.12$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.521323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes12c442.17$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.068845.5%40 W · 48 L+9.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+48.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No79c393.99$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.981540%6 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed Yes10c377.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.646540%26 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a36…0d0dbacked Yes8c333.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263026.7%8 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa95f…92f9backed No80c319.89$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.03450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes19c299.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.516447.6%78 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes15c299.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3c7…3d9cbacked Yes17c274.53$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.673333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac06…f4f0backed Yes30c266.05$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd543…8e91backed Yes19c260$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed Yes20c258.94$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7921160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xedd2…3c6dbacked Yes17c250.75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf652…56afbacked No79c250$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed Yes17c225.36$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcd8…aa00backed Yes9c224.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-65.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba90…99b9backed No80c210.16$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.51163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8a3…5adabacked Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3850%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes10c199.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe313…6963backed No79c199.99$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0748…103bbacked No76c197.57$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.092564%16 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes13c178.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.598529.4%25 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeb9…7557backed Yes24c166.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes16c160$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x43f8…2903backed Yes10c160$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.143033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9491…2e3cbacked Yes9c156.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.623447.1%16 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes15c155$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.252035%7 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+98.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7921751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dde…94c3backed No79c145.85$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.171471.4%10 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked Yes15c143.27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.833455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfade…283bbacked No79c139.24$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.242025%5 W · 15 L-7.3wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-65.1%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x22c3…289cbacked No78c138.76$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.532842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47d2…4c10backed No78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.212458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…b243backed No78c127.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.161250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes22c127.36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.022711.1%3 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-70.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x54fc…0ebbbacked Yes21c125.44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa116…6f3bbacked No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-81.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes12c117.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0531719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd118…a96dbacked No80c112.54$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.512245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91e1…1282backed No76c111.94$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.761080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xced4…5055backed Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+112.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes15c110.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.573256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed Yes19c107.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9642…d2abbacked Yes19c106.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205623.2%13 W · 43 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+57.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd02…5e41backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74be…7016backed Yes20c101.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf636…b088backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.