Middle East · resolved market
Iran x Israel conflict ends by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x720908aa876297998badd8a7ba1ed21225d855e72269cdd3140a079d80ba7171
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $243,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 14c | 22,218$3,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,080.13 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 12,300$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 2c | 9,623$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.31 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 17c | 8,813$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.17 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 19c | 7,794$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.74 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 9c | 7,302$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.82 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 14c | 4,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 11c | 3,873$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.22 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 10c | 3,598$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.21 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 18c | 3,535$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.57 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,476$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.85 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e02…b56dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,088$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.94 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…d6c3backed Yes | 14c | 3,066$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 80c | 2,271$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.2 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 2,063$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…b317backed No | 79c | 2,025$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 24c | 2,021$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.16 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,991$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 17c | 1,858$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.78 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,856$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 12c | 1,813$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.68 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 1,687$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.31 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,463$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.9 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 77c | 1,446$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.36 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 1,415$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 2c | 1,410$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3391…7200backed Yes | 14c | 1,387$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d37…7182backed Yes | 4c | 1,309$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…bd88backed No | 80c | 1,257$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,211$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 18c | 1,142$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 1c | 1,138$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 14c | 1,084$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.67 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 80c | 1,000$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.81 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 14c | 993.96$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.64 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 933.15$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.81 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 922$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080d…5d0fbacked Yes | 2c | 916.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 20c | 900$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 19c | 807.57$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.67 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…a2c4backed Yes | 16c | 692.79$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 6c | 640$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 8c | 587.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 17c | 580$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 18c | 542.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa619…efc8backed Yes | 19c | 533.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 17c | 500$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…0800backed Yes | 13c | 472.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes | 15c | 470.12$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 12c | 442.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No | 79c | 393.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 10c | 377.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a36…0d0dbacked Yes | 8c | 333.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…92f9backed No | 80c | 319.89$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 15c | 299.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c7…3d9cbacked Yes | 17c | 274.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…f4f0backed Yes | 30c | 266.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd543…8e91backed Yes | 19c | 260$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 20c | 258.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedd2…3c6dbacked Yes | 17c | 250.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf652…56afbacked No | 79c | 250$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 17c | 225.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd8…aa00backed Yes | 9c | 224.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed No | 80c | 210.16$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…5adabacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe313…6963backed No | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked No | 76c | 197.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 13c | 178.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb9…7557backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 16c | 160$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9491…2e3cbacked Yes | 9c | 156.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 15c | 155$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed No | 79c | 145.85$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 15c | 143.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…283bbacked No | 79c | 139.24$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -7.3wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…289cbacked No | 78c | 138.76$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d2…4c10backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…b243backed No | 78c | 127.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 22c | 127.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…0ebbbacked Yes | 21c | 125.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa116…6f3bbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 12c | 117.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd118…a96dbacked No | 80c | 112.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed No | 76c | 111.94$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 15c | 110.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 19c | 107.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 19c | 106.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…5e41backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…7016backed Yes | 20c | 101.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…b088backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.