TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,952
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$169,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,952 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x96d4…9cd5backed No53c34,306$18,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,182.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc210…4666backed Yes47c34,306$16,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,182.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c6,945$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.514212%17 W · 125 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-75.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes44c6,113$2,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,423.0726041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf921…94dbbacked No34c3,943$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,345.951926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed No19c3,374$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.57030%21 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes45c2,867$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.432639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No4c2,452$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.93983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed Yes39c2,005$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.4412451.6%64 W · 60 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ed4…3ccbbacked No3c1,846$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb4c…33e9backed No9c1,839$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89a5…cd84backed No17c1,501$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2509932.3%32 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3b…63b9backed No4c1,418$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.282828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+61.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc815…56b0backed No28c1,417$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes77c1,381$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.115059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xcc36…fb3fbacked No6c1,363$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed No78c1,238$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.6813150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked Yes48c1,200$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.163339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes44c1,196$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.547839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No47c1,088$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.964131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed No2c1,080$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a24…9508backed No12c1,050$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.82812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-78.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f4c…147ebacked No2c1,010$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33b2…3d6fbacked No9c910.14$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801010%1 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No22c892.58$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3414628.1%41 W · 105 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No53c869$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.877735.1%27 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed No6c700.12$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6516614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes24c666$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.165745.6%26 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+58.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed No3c641.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed No61c637$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.628536.5%31 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24fb…a48ebacked No78c576.88$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No41c555.21$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.2123041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x575e…5b86backed No6c512.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick14cpaid+184.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No5c494.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.761,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No48c472.41$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.765848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c6…0997backed No8c442.66$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick4cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f89…b168backed No5c440$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x116f…9210backed Yes30c404$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.810123.8%24 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed No5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20726.9%5 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd9…d46ebacked No5c389.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a49…7447backed No21c388.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.37520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-71.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5916…a3febacked No5c322.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes39c321$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.8119031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No73c318.45$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.482360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c0…c91ebacked No4c316.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No67c310.28$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.972965.5%19 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c295.27$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.1487033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x01e2…2494backed No69c289.68$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No53c259.99$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.85437%20 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No8c249.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes67c238$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.546426.6%17 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cf…caa1backed No9c234.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc5d…3deabacked No75c227.51$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.51353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6012…7cd2backed No36c220.32$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes50c211.25$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.422714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…5e04backed No7c205$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12015054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No60c200$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1197252.8%38 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53c4…6582backed No50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003713.5%5 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf1…80a7backed Yes23c200$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1541526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No74c193.08$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.820049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee04…c22bbacked Yes41c185.47$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.622931%9 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0813…c357backed No10c185.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.22616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-69.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No17c162.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.44673%2 W · 65 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-75.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked No52c162.19$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-68.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes27c151.08$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.978023.8%19 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08e2…71b1backed Yes40c150$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9010037%37 W · 63 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes20c150$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1203423.5%8 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df0…a488backed Yes32c149.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef72…3464backed Yes55c140$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-54.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ccb…e4eabacked No27c139$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No8c130$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.263847.4%18 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x58ca…cc33backed No22c120$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.42157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes41c116.12$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.018130.9%25 W · 56 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes47c107$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+122.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4616…e881backed No47c105.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504833.3%16 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a52…3e04backed Yes24c104$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.652123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735812.1%7 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-44.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d77…abd5backed No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.823941%16 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No58c95.07$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0550633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc30c…6509backed No51c95$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.75520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e87…ef0dbacked Yes39c90.18$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.183243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed No24c90$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2332814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes34c87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.361650%8 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No48c77$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.963754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No23c63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.492458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf5…31f9backed No64c60$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.540%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No21c57.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3648414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca6b…7be7backed Yes61c53.6$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed Yes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed No60c47.37$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.421315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked No72c41.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.63240.6%13 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ab9…fd27backed No56c37.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.92757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed Yes33c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.454050%20 W · 20 L+6.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+28.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2810…1131backed Yes64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x198b…9973backed Yes59c30.96$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3938…713cbacked Yes65c16.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.