Movies · resolved market
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $33m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c1a7796bec31b7bfa0b85f67b9f3caf63a9724616e50383f71f04f99958acfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 12,755$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.68 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…9edcbacked Yes | 4c | 5,544$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 4,418$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…a488backed Yes | 7c | 2,306$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 2,234$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.28 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 6c | 2,063$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.41 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 67c | 2,063$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.98 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3464backed Yes | 14c | 1,914$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…8734backed Yes | 26c | 1,788$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…63b9backed Yes | 5c | 1,615$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked Yes | 8c | 1,554$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 8c | 1,476$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…1d41backed Yes | 11c | 1,400$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…80a7backed Yes | 3c | 1,261$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…fb3fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,168$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 28c | 1,058$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.52 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,023$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.54 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.09 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…3d6fbacked Yes | 7c | 892.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 38c | 788$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.45 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 4c | 686.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb1…3020backed Yes | 2c | 660.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c6…0997backed Yes | 3c | 633.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 74c | 608.08$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.4 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 37c | 569$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.69 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 26c | 559$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.34 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 18c | 518.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd9…d46ebacked Yes | 4c | 513.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 440.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 420.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 384.66$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 64c | 380.94$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.86 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…5adabacked Yes | 27c | 368$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 39c | 329$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.18 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 34c | 321$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.14 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…3a8cbacked Yes | 32c | 315.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 27c | 292.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Yes | 8c | 288.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 37c | 265.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 30c | 264.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 25c | 215$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 35c | 212.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 28c | 207$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfead…b304backed Yes | 21c | 200.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed Yes | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6b…7be7backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked Yes | 16c | 191$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 39c | 184.62$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 63c | 183.33$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…9d34backed Yes | 7c | 176$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 19c | 167.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…33e9backed Yes | 44c | 162.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 131$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccb…e4eabacked Yes | 10c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed Yes | 42c | 100.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…e10ebacked Yes | 37c | 94.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 26c | 87.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 41c | 87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 28c | 77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…f627backed Yes | 18c | 72.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 70.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…818bbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…c586backed Yes | 44c | 45.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…3e04backed Yes | 58c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d2…0348backed No | 64c | 25.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $33m?this page
- Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be $37m or more?No won
- Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $33m and $37m?No won
- Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.