Movies · resolved market
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $33m and $37m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3bdf78e298e1bb022f9bafda699668cdbf6abdfdc69b064b454401ac139891c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6df0…a488backed Yes | 1c | 25,595$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 23,303$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…3d6fbacked Yes | 1c | 18,056$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 2c | 7,808$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 7,774$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed Yes | 19c | 7,132$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…9edcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,707$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 1c | 3,794$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3479…f2bdbacked Yes | 14c | 3,505$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.03 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3464backed Yes | 1c | 3,423$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.97 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…5eddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,350$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c6…0997backed Yes | 7c | 1,099$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 24c | 800$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.5 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 5c | 745.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 20c | 539.47$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.74 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb1…3020backed Yes | 5c | 483.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 12c | 405.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 6c | 354$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 9c | 325$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 296.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 15c | 260.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 207$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 36c | 205.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 8c | 155$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…c357backed Yes | 12c | 145.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 133.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…818bbacked Yes | 15c | 131.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 118.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…d1a3backed Yes | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…c586backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 62c | 103.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…0b8fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…31f9backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccb…e4eabacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 22c | 76.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked No | 69c | 58.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…5500backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf30…82e8backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $33m and $37m?this page
- Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be $37m or more?No won
- Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $33m?No won
- Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.