Movies · resolved market
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be $37m or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c041043c4bb8026bf0ea358b5857cf40e3b480754495cedfeccb302f4d10e19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $358,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $322,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $358,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c17…9edcbacked Yes | 1c | 67,014$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed Yes | 7c | 46,403$3,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,417 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…3d6fbacked Yes | 1c | 36,733$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…a488backed Yes | 1c | 35,181$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 24,258$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 6,806$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af8…21b0backed Yes | 1c | 6,441$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,416$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked Yes | 2c | 5,362$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 3c | 3,971$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.23 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 3,199$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,842$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 9c | 1,642$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.95 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,356$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 2c | 1,305$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c6…0997backed Yes | 1c | 1,236$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 899$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked Yes | 9c | 831.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…fb3fbacked Yes | 2c | 801.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 17c | 791.89$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…2eabbacked Yes | 9c | 790$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 589$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 21c | 475.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 12c | 468.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…d1a3backed Yes | 10c | 442.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 9c | 427.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed No | 76c | 402.93$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 12c | 336.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 7c | 322$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 10c | 312.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 9c | 301$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…974cbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked Yes | 11c | 298$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 35c | 288.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfead…b304backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 10c | 202.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 16c | 161.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 12c | 145$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb1…3020backed Yes | 8c | 145$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…a39bbacked Yes | 14c | 143.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 17c | 126.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…0b8fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…31f9backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc372…dda1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac2e…95e6backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…5500backed Yes | 20c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be $37m or more?this page
- Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $33m?No won
- Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $33m and $37m?No won
- Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.