Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump suspend habeas corpus before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeec3ade5ec10293fed19df46551aa073388ba185aa26f31bb505081ac16b1917
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 12c | 11,515$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.58 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 10c | 8,980$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.4 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 12c | 3,491$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.74 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 13c | 3,398$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.87 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 15c | 3,366$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.43 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 10c | 2,270$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.29 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 13c | 1,804$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.25 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,449$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,204$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.67 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 1,003$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.36 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 7c | 805.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 13c | 800$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 13c | 748.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 630.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 18c | 560$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 11c | 557.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 2c | 515.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…ed01backed Yes | 21c | 442.09$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 416.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 14c | 331$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f03…2fadbacked Yes | 15c | 315.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 9c | 314.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 15c | 265$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 223.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 217.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33a3…b885backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5568…144fbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 14c | 147.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -17.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 12c | 101$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…6eabbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 17c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 12c | 83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.