TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$855,055
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$880,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $855,055 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc458…ef36backed Yes66c53,507$35,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,192.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b93…7edbbacked No34c53,507$18,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,192.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No6c39,389$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.7210127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed No5c31,065$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,527.862958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x826f…6e3dbacked No35c30,422$10,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,647.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c8b…e496backed Yes65c30,422$19,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,647.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8624…b804backed No42c27,237$11,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,439.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x701c…9bc5backed Yes58c27,237$15,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,439.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked No4c27,131$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.192035%7 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed No11c25,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75010122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xda08…72d4backed No4c24,733$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.541631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No6c15,119$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.346883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No6c11,921$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.7310533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…058fbacked No8c11,071$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No1c11,050$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.979334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c10,599$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.642939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No5c10,060$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.5712129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No6c10,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5803528.6%10 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed No6c8,799$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.961323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7504…9c69backed No6c8,567$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.8825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No7c7,746$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.7817037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No7c7,260$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.92240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+60.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d6a…0040backed No0c7,233$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed No10c7,068$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.095530.9%17 W · 38 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-46.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No7c6,354$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.4612345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No8c6,140$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.368821.6%19 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No8c5,114$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.8516744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No7c4,565$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.821330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No11c3,831$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.3457636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked No4c3,729$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.593318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No8c3,227$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.1519043.7%83 W · 107 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6f…fe11backed No6c3,071$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.34757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc33d…1b02backed No7c2,744$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd69…23d1backed No10c2,710$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No10c2,624$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.379750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No5c2,396$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.336642.4%28 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No6c2,373$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.819237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed No9c2,262$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.183411.8%4 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x372a…7201backed No7c2,087$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No5c1,944$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8112332.5%40 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No8c1,798$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.62729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-37.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No1c1,705$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6423225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180a…8b0dbacked No8c1,604$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6470%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No10c1,528$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.523743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked No7c1,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.518214.8%27 W · 155 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+218.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed No6c1,203$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.274334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+29.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e11…b846backed No16c1,187$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.51811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No4c1,118$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.51233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80cf…614dbacked No4c1,113$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.672035%7 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+51.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e35…c89abacked No10c1,000$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick25cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x023e…4f21backed No12c1,000$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+60.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No11c988.79$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.61,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d74…ee45backed No9c916$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.623724.3%9 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed No6c908.68$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.21256.4%8 W · 117 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed No9c906.44$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.541030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-62.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No7c835.35$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3211222.3%25 W · 87 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed No5c820$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.243119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No4c800$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.532254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-0.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed No7c799.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.593036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c0…c91ebacked No8c641.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.861040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73e3…ca27backed No10c626.61$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602035%7 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No16c624.71$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.616530.8%20 W · 45 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-34.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No6c620$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8845723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc0a…6fc4backed No4c507.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.871553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+50.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No11c505.62$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1612920.9%27 W · 102 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed No5c499.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.314134.1%14 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No6c482.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.144766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked No20c450$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.822828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No6c416.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7563…7cf1backed No10c409.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a1f…ec73backed No6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.91942.1%8 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+51.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked No5c400$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.31822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No14c348.44$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.34647.8%22 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda23…080ebacked No6c338.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505d…9468backed No7c320.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1947…aea4backed No6c319.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed No3c317$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.78616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf508…5542backed No7c311.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42d9…bc6dbacked No4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes68c279.61$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6128434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed No5c264$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-70.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes70c250$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.679035.6%32 W · 58 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No5c250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0312040%48 W · 72 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes46c220$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1192733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9312…2f98backed No6c210$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11b2…7c70backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102313%3 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.42729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed Yes56c199.99$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.55238.5%20 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f9…2573backed Yes73c198.41$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.91933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca02…a2bdbacked No6c170$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No12c165.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.358337.3%31 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+104%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes57c150$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.53525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No40c144.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.669659.4%57 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No15c127.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1311850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x2ea7…7a4abacked No20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0e…c771backed Yes72c122.43$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No12c102.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2356314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503638.9%14 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+340%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.