World Politics · resolved market
Will Josh Gottheimer win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e05fcac16c2e66cb5423fc16f6c3c0250f386166cae14cb8b97fd9d36996400
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 2c | 28,944$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.68 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 2c | 19,854$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.58 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 1c | 15,518$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 2c | 10,294$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.94 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 9,418$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.39 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 2c | 9,158$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.89 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 3c | 5,690$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.12 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,409$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 4,725$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Yes | 3c | 3,885$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,202$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…6fc4backed Yes | 1c | 2,587$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 2c | 2,397$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f9…2573backed Yes | 2c | 1,936$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 1,895$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…ec73backed Yes | 3c | 1,528$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 2c | 1,457$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 3c | 1,389$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 2c | 1,388$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,364$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 2c | 1,201$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,030$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 2c | 802$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 742.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Yes | 3c | 728.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 666$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 3c | 515.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 2c | 490.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 2c | 482$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 470.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…b6abbacked Yes | 11c | 458.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe854…269fbacked Yes | 3c | 431.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0d…49afbacked Yes | 3c | 380$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afe…c5ffbacked Yes | 7c | 287.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…c102backed Yes | 8c | 129.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 51c | 24.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Josh Gottheimer win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?this page
- Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?Yes won
- Will Ras Baraka win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?No won
- Will Sean Spiller win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?No won
- Will Stephen Sweeney win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?No won
- Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.