AI · resolved market
Grok 4 released by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0c1e20c4519886c8cc7348522631e5d020d2fe5b4652efbdccad28fb5d9f712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e9b…ce4ebacked Yes | 59c | 32,913$19,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,494.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1b…0c85backed No | 41c | 32,913$13,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,494.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 7,797$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 16c | 6,160$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.54 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 4,598$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 3,746$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 33c | 1,370$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.77 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 74c | 860.57$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.75 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 38c | 845.95$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.1 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 51c | 816.5$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd13…b4febacked No | 7c | 791.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7a…53a3backed No | 71c | 658.77$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 2c | 568.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x075b…9a8cbacked No | 43c | 498.77$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 10c | 459.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 367.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 75c | 313.82$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 27c | 299.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 56c | 270$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b5…596dbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 56c | 154$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 147.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.51 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 56c | 146$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 25c | 120.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 21c | 111$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 19c | 108.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…485abacked Yes | 44c | 104.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…56b0backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 47c | 81.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…fed9backed Yes | 24c | 68.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 75c | 63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6a…2bcbbacked Yes | 41c | 49.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9a…40d9backed No | 53c | 47.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…7472backed Yes | 45c | 44.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed No | 30c | 42.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…1ccfbacked Yes | 26c | 40.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 55c | 34.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grok 4 released by September 30?this page
- Grok 4 released by December 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.