AI · resolved market
Grok 4 released by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e1a037aac5403a9f2f3aea7f6f1b15a0a937e1817289ad7e6c0945b0991adb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 4,588$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 9c | 3,333$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 3c | 955.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 18c | 651.09$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed No | 5c | 495$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 68c | 400$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +91%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked No | 26c | 370$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 25c | 313.93$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed No | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 22c | 279.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dc…d9e0backed Yes | 78c | 275.44$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 154.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 37c | 124.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 71c | 117.94$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 17c | 101$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe561…a68dbacked Yes | 77c | 98.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 65c | 76.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 36c | 42.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 258 | 31.8%82 W · 176 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a47…7903backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…3b6ebacked Yes | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grok 4 released by December 31?this page
- Grok 4 released by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.