TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$295,876
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$264,138

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $295,876 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes3c12,244$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.4626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2893…1534backed Yes6c10,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes3c8,731$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.111612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c8,047$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.7255618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes1c7,467$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6232029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b83…f984backed Yes2c7,315$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes2c5,808$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.368020%16 W · 64 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc570…c2a0backed Yes1c5,275$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0280…bc7bbacked Yes4c5,234$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+109%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c5,000$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes1c4,578$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6518322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe211…5131backed Yes7c4,345$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2417…5d1ebacked Yes1c4,173$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7acd…cf9ebacked Yes2c3,950$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes1c3,268$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.54195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-87.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9977…3020backed Yes3c2,784$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…20cabacked Yes5c2,584$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8558…d6c9backed Yes4c2,566$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x247f…ff45backed Yes2c2,538$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes2c2,438$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.118134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c2,328$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.523989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd28c…5de7backed Yes4c2,119$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ddc…77a1backed Yes2c2,118$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes7c2,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.88632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaffd…8f68backed Yes3c1,960$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad49…4b25backed Yes1c1,810$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda4a…cb1bbacked Yes4c1,747$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf75a…3e62backed Yes4c1,586$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5531…76fcbacked Yes7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4825…5ec5backed Yes3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+76.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb41c…647bbacked Yes3c1,449$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes6c1,300$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.25326.4%14 W · 39 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbaa…0e22backed Yes2c1,277$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x152f…a763backed Yes1c1,250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa69a…47aabacked Yes4c1,240$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4006…f9debacked Yes9c1,140$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.992128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dda…2839backed Yes5c1,100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1cc…e2ebbacked Yes1c1,016$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b64…8b7bbacked Yes2c1,008$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258517.6%15 W · 70 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d49…4f7cbacked Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae3…bc70backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7215…9842backed Yes2c1,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes8c1,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ff…a806backed Yes2c968.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc39…da16backed Yes3c937.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes7c911.43$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819f…f200backed Yes6c802.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1687…906cbacked Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x097f…2d35backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes6c712.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.72154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes5c707.84$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-58.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b80…adccbacked Yes3c681.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x914e…9370backed Yes7c630.74$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+82.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d44…d9adbacked Yes2c617.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-71.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes9c617$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6144111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes8c600$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4860%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc903…ed01backed Yes6c583.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7daf…61fbbacked Yes4c547.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1402…45fdbacked Yes2c526.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e8b…856ebacked Yes6c514.83$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.892015%3 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22ac…7497backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Yes6c500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-89.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72f7…1870backed Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe032…4168backed Yes3c500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x125d…63b1backed Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865c…ad2abacked Yes2c499.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+37.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c35…c5b3backed Yes2c410.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3aa…e5febacked Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes6c400$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165438.9%21 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…abc3backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-47.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1f7a…5015backed Yes7c357.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid+130.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x221d…7207backed Yes7c357.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-59.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes6c350$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.53417.6%6 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe787…4790backed Yes11c327.27$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa704…1979backed Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9265…4ab7backed Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11b2…7c70backed Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb33…1fe7backed Yes10c287.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19bc…c971backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc91…8032backed Yes8c283.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18d…b98fbacked Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b04…16fabacked Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa3…da37backed Yes10c209.44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x455d…89d6backed Yes5c200.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…6bf2backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145935.6%21 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…b395backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe268…c745backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab4…e700backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb87b…d7f9backed Yes10c145.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e46…9800backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick7cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x130f…9ee7backed Yes10c120$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick18cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e52…44b1backed Yes14c106.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.