Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x140167d871a5f240e42dd8a021b03f2777f37589bd56b2c761c9b2bc8e2826f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 0c | 27,709$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…d1ebbacked Yes | 31c | 6,725$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 5,962$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 69c | 5,012$3,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 8c | 4,650$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 2,277$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.65 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,764$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 69c | 1,532$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 72c | 1,514$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.94 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…5208backed Yes | 37c | 1,343$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes | 30c | 1,216$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…b0b5backed Yes | 44c | 1,125$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…75eabacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…fd07backed Yes | 1c | 999.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 5c | 885.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 72c | 849.97$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddb…cd80backed No | 70c | 668.85$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 67c | 664.99$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.45 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 3c | 555.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 25c | 550.78$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 65c | 355.61$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 31c | 321.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…e5c0backed Yes | 55c | 308.05$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…b62bbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 70c | 289$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked No | 76c | 268.77$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe304…3f81backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…61d6backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb728…fc92backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 25c | 186.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 182.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7900…550fbacked Yes | 40c | 170$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 16c | 161.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 78c | 149.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 67c | 133.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed No | 69c | 133.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…7cffbacked Yes | 32c | 133.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 17c | 129.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 10c | 124.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed No | 69c | 123.44$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…e066backed Yes | 23c | 107.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f512backed Yes | 12c | 104.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 10c | 103.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed No | 72c | 102.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 38c | 90.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2c…51e0backed Yes | 49c | 83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…799fbacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…09a6backed No | 64c | 77.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…3152backed Yes | 39c | 76.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d2…0413backed Yes | 28c | 71.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…3e14backed No | 72c | 70.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…1a83backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…a7f9backed Yes | 22c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…0067backed No | 54c | 59.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed No | 25c | 55.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bc…b082backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…b3ddbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0375…c7debacked No | 71c | 47.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 24c | 46.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…e3ddbacked Yes | 43c | 46.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 28c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 57c | 40.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed No | 48c | 40.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…ce9bbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…e0fbbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 31c | 38.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaded…dd19backed No | 63c | 32.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…2136backed No | 62c | 31.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…920abacked Yes | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 62c | 28.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 50cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…168abacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 27.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…b056backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked No | 71c | 27.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 68c | 18.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…b42dbacked No | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.