Movies · resolved market
Will 'Fight or Flight' gross more than $1.5m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf624c04a49adcf4b0b167617eca41ad529e6783d23d0e6627df4c6eec757b006
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8624…b804backed No | 33c | 33,851$11,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,170.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…e725backed Yes | 67c | 33,851$22,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,170.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 1c | 14,211$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.58 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 2,372$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 62c | 1,408$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.53 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed No | 46c | 1,337$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 78c | 1,001$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.8 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 664.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 46c | 421.42$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.94 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 352.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 71c | 230$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 223.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 20c | 184.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed Yes | 49c | 149.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 19c | 113.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 60c | 95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed Yes | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked Yes | 61c | 74.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 75c | 67.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b97…99e5backed Yes | 63c | 47.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 68c | 40.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a27…eacbbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5429…a2ecbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…e50dbacked Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 74c | 22.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ce…de32backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…818bbacked Yes | 69c | 15.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Fight or Flight' gross more than $1.5m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Fight or Flight' gross between $0.9-1.2m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Fight or Flight' gross between $1.2-1.5m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Fight or Flight' gross less than $0.9m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.