Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f3b62e088281fed415231be9af8d488299ea42a5a9f7edad4a2f885f1ba47ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $324,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $384,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $324,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 6c | 19,447$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.89 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 13,375$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.83 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 7c | 6,145$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.35 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes | 8c | 5,251$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ad…337dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,581$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 9c | 4,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 8c | 3,794$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.55 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 7c | 3,731$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.2 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 8c | 3,321$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.72 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 3,298$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.4 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,026$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,984$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.88 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…e985backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 5c | 1,843$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccda…4937backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 7c | 1,414$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes | 8c | 1,294$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30c7…317dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,231$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…b671backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071a…d310backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…1794backed Yes | 3c | 1,058$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e6…1d2bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 6c | 899.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 849.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…d259backed Yes | 8c | 744.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f69…18cabacked Yes | 8c | 742.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…f593backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…756ebacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…3552backed Yes | 8c | 671.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6527…284abacked Yes | 7c | 619.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…4c95backed Yes | 4c | 597.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9c…0f95backed Yes | 6c | 559.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…21babacked Yes | 4c | 486.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed Yes | 8c | 439.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 5c | 436.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…4fc7backed Yes | 8c | 419.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…1ccfbacked Yes | 8c | 405$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 398.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 8c | 349.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 7c | 342.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab79…8a54backed Yes | 8c | 339.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…2b97backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcade…3cf9backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…5990backed Yes | 7c | 331.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bd…6a71backed Yes | 8c | 320.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3b…a80abacked Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee9…6088backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…bdf7backed Yes | 9c | 288.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…8de8backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…e790backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…2784backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…3ad2backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d27…ddefbacked Yes | 9c | 233.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…d226backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 6c | 222$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…de87backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd20…9b07backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf912…88e0backed Yes | 6c | 193.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…c1aabacked Yes | 7c | 183.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…ed01backed Yes | 7c | 167.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…146dbacked Yes | 8c | 160$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…f229backed Yes | 7c | 157.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b31…c62fbacked Yes | 9c | 155.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf149…21b9backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef42…c078backed Yes | 8c | 139.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9509…3afdbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc30b…3c30backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb77…7368backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bf…d630backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.