TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$173,411
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$177,124

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,411 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeb8e…1dc1backed No44c25,571$11,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,255.271450%7 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85a3…84b5backed No24c14,250$3,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,893.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+323.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x110f…8f39backed No20c9,955$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,010.644472.7%32 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+59.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes60c8,049$4,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,843.964751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes77c5,505$4,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,262.861838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed Yes64c4,895$3,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,138.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Yes76c4,821$3,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,684.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes77c4,325$3,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,309.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ae…f5a6backed Yes68c4,119$2,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,789.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-54.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes61c3,500$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,126.983225%8 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-44.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes63c3,274$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,062.11520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-66.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa22…27febacked No14c3,033$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,613.12944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+154.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes71c2,948$2,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,083.630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e33…1482backed Yes53c2,900$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6837…15e1backed No8c2,781$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,567.8511637.1%43 W · 73 L+14.1wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x21d5…9925backed Yes62c2,700$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,674.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f14…026ebacked Yes56c2,679$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcee2…abe9backed Yes48c2,529$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.42616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-74.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No34c2,500$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,661.096732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes69c2,407$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,657.682941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ec…a946backed Yes72c2,220$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes61c2,055$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked Yes66c2,023$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.541827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-49.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa02…5b9abacked Yes60c1,945$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.79520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed No39c1,900$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.21633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes79c1,900$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5091030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No20c1,788$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.015621.4%12 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2271…85b4backed No64c1,783$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes75c1,738$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.632441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed Yes68c1,500$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.942548%12 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8983…24fbbacked Yes69c1,407$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa053…e6a6backed No12c1,386$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.172100%2 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,104.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No11c1,385$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.7133123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dc4…306fbacked Yes59c1,321$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc9b…27bdbacked Yes79c1,269$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db0…8c18backed Yes60c1,149$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…aecebacked Yes72c1,135$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x990b…7ac3backed Yes72c1,126$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.06955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5684…7874backed Yes68c1,104$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.433636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes57c1,100$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6282751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes74c1,021$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.61457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf164…61fdbacked Yes56c1,002$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes13c988.96$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.569745.4%44 W · 53 L+22.0wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+88%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed Yes21c889.99$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c7…5510backed Yes70c800$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.21637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa124…4ef1backed No23c783.46$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.67250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+113.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes49c752.22$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.62966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecd3…4285backed Yes54c740.74$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes51c700$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3563426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-8.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x445a…9465backed Yes78c692.54$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2da…74e3backed Yes70c689.38$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.23944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4108…a80dbacked No49c635.91$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.771637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58da…42aebacked Yes78c620.4$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a0…76e5backed Yes75c618.49$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.182650%13 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes77c600$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4641258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No27c600$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+57.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Yes79c591.96$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick62cpaid-68.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ac3…16f6backed Yes78c509.99$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bdd…6da4backed Yes60c502.06$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1be5…9b6abacked No11c500.94$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+360.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdce…5112backed Yes72c500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c88…383abacked Yes67c500$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5520…32ffbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No9c483.87$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.672781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf73…0436backed Yes55c481.69$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.13933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6496…09d0backed Yes53c477.19$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.9440%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bf1…aecebacked Yes54c459.5$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82ed…b788backed Yes54c454$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.263016.7%5 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-75.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x027c…60f2backed Yes53c452.89$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73a7…3763backed Yes10c417.53$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.231711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2e8…e923backed No29c408.69$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.691471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No26c404.6$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.458345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00c8…a75fbacked Yes69c399.47$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No14c395.19$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.7148414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No12c392.54$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.6920850%104 W · 104 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfde3…719abacked Yes70c390.91$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No30c389.97$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.465242.3%22 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes65c384$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.288040%32 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a43…9e08backed No13c382.94$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+299.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19b5…6562backed Yes67c368.09$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes66c352.64$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.641428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df1…ea12backed Yes70c348.39$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No27c336.22$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.5213851.4%71 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d27…d430backed Yes63c316.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4417…90e3backed Yes79c311.49$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes64c299.99$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+22.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No40c299.25$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.72755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed No23c288.02$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.0513321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No10c287.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.63934.3%4 W · 89 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b6…b21bbacked Yes73c280.79$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No8c266.01$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.42042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x687d…e28bbacked Yes75c266$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick64cpaid-48.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe3b8…e7d5backed Yes73c260$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19140%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x463c…b6fdbacked Yes61c254.84$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes74c250$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafc0…d46fbacked No13c244.37$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+663.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1de5…c008backed No25c240$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes58c239$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.7434651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dbc…7032backed No13c231.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.25520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+54.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38fc…c078backed Yes68c229.57$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.83256.3%18 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.